MX23RW : Saturday, August 20 05:48:28| >> :300:86500:86500:
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Aug 6, 2022 at 5.30pm UK at Signal Iduna Park
Dortmund
1 - 0
B. Leverkusen
Reus (10')
Hazard (43'), Schlotterbeck (72')
FT(HT: 1-0)

Tah (27'), Palacios (37'), Hincapie (56'), Bakker (90+5')
Hradecky (90+2')
The Match
Preview
Sports Mole previews Saturday's Bundesliga clash between Borussia Dortmund and Bayer Leverkusen, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

We said: Borussia Dortmund 3-2 Bayer Leverkusen

We expect to see a highly entertaining, high-scoring affair between two attacking teams on Saturday. Both meetings saw seven goals scored at either end last season, but we expect the hosts to just edge it having looked more ready for the new season in the DFB-Pokal last weekend. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Borussia Dortmund win with a probability of 45.96%. A win for Bayer Leverkusen had a probability of 32.6% and a draw had a probability of 21.4%.

The most likely scoreline for a Borussia Dortmund win was 2-1 with a probability of 8.52%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 3-1 (5.68%) and 1-0 (5.12%). The likeliest Bayer Leverkusen win was 1-2 (7.1%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (8.53%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 5.1% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Borussia Dortmund would win this match.

Result
Borussia DortmundDrawBayer Leverkusen
45.96% (1.282 1.28) 21.44% (-0.303 -0.3) 32.6% (-0.979 -0.98)
Both teams to score 70.11% (0.762 0.76)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
70.86% (1.146 1.15)29.14% (-1.146 -1.15)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
49.86% (1.389 1.39)50.14% (-1.389 -1.39)
Borussia Dortmund Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
86.46% (0.87299999999999 0.87)13.54% (-0.872 -0.87)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
59.39% (1.717 1.72)40.61% (-1.717 -1.72)
Bayer Leverkusen Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
81.09% (0.061999999999998 0.06)18.91% (-0.061 -0.06)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
49.6% (0.103 0.1)50.4% (-0.103 -0.1)
Score Analysis
    Borussia Dortmund 45.96%
    Bayer Leverkusen 32.6%
    Draw 21.44%
Borussia DortmundDrawBayer Leverkusen
2-1 @ 8.52% (-0.0030000000000001 -0)
3-1 @ 5.68% (0.176 0.18)
1-0 @ 5.12% (-0.176 -0.18)
2-0 @ 5.12% (-0.010999999999999 -0.01)
3-2 @ 4.73% (0.155 0.16)
3-0 @ 3.41% (0.099 0.1)
4-1 @ 2.84% (0.174 0.17)
4-2 @ 2.37% (0.149 0.15)
4-0 @ 1.71% (0.101 0.1)
4-3 @ 1.31% (0.085 0.09)
5-1 @ 1.14% (0.103 0.1)
5-2 @ 0.95% (0.087 0.09)
Other @ 3.07%
Total : 45.96%
1-1 @ 8.53% (-0.278 -0.28)
2-2 @ 7.1% (0.012 0.01)
3-3 @ 2.63% (0.091 0.09)
0-0 @ 2.56% (-0.173 -0.17)
Other @ 0.63%
Total : 21.44%
1-2 @ 7.1% (-0.217 -0.22)
0-1 @ 4.26% (-0.281 -0.28)
1-3 @ 3.94% (-0.112 -0.11)
2-3 @ 3.94% (0.014 0.01)
0-2 @ 3.55% (-0.227 -0.23)
0-3 @ 1.97% (-0.122 -0.12)
1-4 @ 1.64% (-0.044 -0.04)
2-4 @ 1.64% (0.0090000000000001 0.01)
3-4 @ 1.09% (0.04 0.04)
Other @ 3.45%
Total : 32.6%

How you voted: Dortmund vs B. Leverkusen

Borussia Dortmund
75.5%
Draw
12.7%
Bayer Leverkusen
11.8%
102
Head to Head
Feb 6, 2022 2.30pm
Dortmund
2-5
B. Leverkusen
Frimpong (16' og.), Tigges (89')
Dahoud (26')
Akanji (11' og.), Wirtz (20'), Andrich (28'), Tah (53'), Diaby (87')
Bellarabi (46')
Sep 11, 2021 2.30pm
B. Leverkusen
3-4
Dortmund
Wirtz (9'), Schick (45+1'), Diaby (55')
Wirtz (60'), Frimpong (70'), Odilon (75'), Diaby (86')
Braut Haaland (37', 77'), Brandt (49'), Guerreiro (71')
Meunier (20'), Braut Haaland (60'), Wolf (90+2')
May 22, 2021 2.30pm
Jan 19, 2021 7.30pm
B. Leverkusen
2-1
Dortmund
Diaby (14'), Wirtz (80')
Bailey (73'), Diaby (78')
Brandt (67')
Hummels (90+1'), Delaney (90+3')
Feb 8, 2020 5.30pm
B. Leverkusen
4-3
Dortmund
Volland (20', 43'), Bailey (81'), Bender (82')
Bender (35'), Volland (67')
Hummels (22'), Can (33'), Guerreiro (65')
Guerreiro (39')
rhs 2.0
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