Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a America Mineiro win with a probability of 61.91%. A draw had a probability of 23.4% and a win for Chapecoense had a probability of 14.66%.
The most likely scoreline for an America Mineiro win was 1-0 with a probability of 15.59%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (13.29%) and 2-1 (9.13%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.71%), while for a Chapecoense win it was 0-1 (6.28%). The actual scoreline of 3-0 was predicted with a 7.6% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that America Mineiro would win this match.
| Result | ||
| America Mineiro | Draw | Chapecoense |
| 61.91% | 23.43% | 14.66% |
| Both teams to score 40.66% |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 42.82% | 57.17% |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 21.96% | 78.03% |
| America Mineiro Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 81.82% | 18.17% |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 50.84% | 49.16% |
| Chapecoense Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 49.69% | 50.31% |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 15.13% | 84.87% |
| Score Analysis |
| America Mineiro | Draw | Chapecoense |
| 1-0 @ 15.59% 2-0 @ 13.29% 2-1 @ 9.13% 3-0 @ 7.56% 3-1 @ 5.19% 4-0 @ 3.22% 4-1 @ 2.21% 3-2 @ 1.78% 5-0 @ 1.1% Other @ 2.83% Total : 61.9% | 1-1 @ 10.71% 0-0 @ 9.14% 2-2 @ 3.14% Other @ 0.44% Total : 23.43% | 0-1 @ 6.28% 1-2 @ 3.68% 0-2 @ 2.16% Other @ 2.55% Total : 14.66% |


