Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Newcastle Jets win with a probability of 42.45%. A win for Adelaide United had a probability of 33.4% and a draw had a probability of 24.1%.
The most likely scoreline for a Newcastle Jets win was 2-1 with a probability of 8.94%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (7.96%) and 2-0 (6.39%). The likeliest Adelaide United win was 1-2 (7.79%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.13%). The actual scoreline of 1-4 was predicted with a 1.3% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Newcastle Jets | Draw | Adelaide United |
| 42.45% | 24.15% | 33.4% |
| Both teams to score 60.17% |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 57.75% | 42.25% |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 35.34% | 64.65% |
| Newcastle Jets Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 79.9% | 20.1% |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 47.65% | 52.34% |
| Adelaide United Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 75.3% | 24.7% |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 40.76% | 59.24% |
| Score Analysis |
| Newcastle Jets | Draw | Adelaide United |
| 2-1 @ 8.94% 1-0 @ 7.96% 2-0 @ 6.39% 3-1 @ 4.78% 3-0 @ 3.42% 3-2 @ 3.34% 4-1 @ 1.92% 4-0 @ 1.37% 4-2 @ 1.34% Other @ 2.99% Total : 42.45% | 1-1 @ 11.13% 2-2 @ 6.25% 0-0 @ 4.96% 3-3 @ 1.56% Other @ 0.24% Total : 24.14% | 1-2 @ 7.79% 0-1 @ 6.94% 0-2 @ 4.85% 1-3 @ 3.63% 2-3 @ 2.91% 0-3 @ 2.26% 1-4 @ 1.27% 2-4 @ 1.02% Other @ 2.73% Total : 33.4% |