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World Cup

Samoa national football team
World Cup Qualifying - Oceania | Group Stage
Nov 15, 2024 at 3am UK
FMG Stadium Waikato
Tahiti national football team

Samoa
0 - 3
Tahiti


Vaai (63'), Ibrom (64'), Ibrom (64'), Vaai (85')
FT(HT: 0-0)
Kaspard (59', 59'), Mathon (65', 65'), Tehau (87', 87')
Tehau (63'), Tehau (63'), Papaura (85'), Papaura (85')
Coverage of the World Cup Qualifying - Oceania Group Stage clash between Samoa and Tahiti.

Form, Standings, Stats

Samoa

Last Game: Vanuatu 4-1 Samoa
Saturday, October 12 at 4am in World Cup Qualifying - Oceania

Tahiti

Last Game: New Zealand 3-0 Tahiti
Friday, October 11 at 3am in World Cup Qualifying - Oceania

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Tahiti win with a probability of 66.71%. A draw had a probability of 17.7% and a win for Samoa had a probability of 15.6%.

The most likely scoreline for a Tahiti win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.44%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (8.41%) and 1-3 (7.75%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (7.67%), while for a Samoa win it was 2-1 (4.31%). The actual scoreline of 0-3 was predicted with a 6.9% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Tahiti would win this match.

Result
SamoaDrawTahiti
15.6% (0.24 0.24)17.69% (-0.114 -0.11)66.71% (-0.123 -0.12)
Both teams to score 61.7% (1.097 1.1)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
69.44% (1.102 1.1)30.55% (-1.101 -1.1)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
48.14% (1.306 1.31)51.85% (-1.304 -1.3)
Samoa Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
67.45% (1.01 1.01)32.54% (-1.008 -1.01)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
30.92% (1.115 1.12)69.08% (-1.113 -1.11)
Tahiti Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
91.47% (0.265 0.27)8.53% (-0.263 -0.26)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
70.47% (0.64699999999999 0.65)29.52% (-0.644 -0.64)
Score Analysis
    Samoa 15.6%
    Tahiti 66.71%
    Draw 17.69%
SamoaDrawTahiti
2-1 @ 4.31% (0.028 0.03)
1-0 @ 3.12% (-0.105 -0.11)
3-2 @ 1.98% (0.09 0.09)
2-0 @ 1.75% (-0.0099999999999998 -0.01)
3-1 @ 1.61% (0.054 0.05)
Other @ 2.84%
Total : 15.6%
1-1 @ 7.67% (-0.162 -0.16)
2-2 @ 5.3% (0.099 0.1)
0-0 @ 2.78% (-0.175 -0.18)
3-3 @ 1.63% (0.093 0.09)
Other @ 0.31%
Total : 17.69%
1-2 @ 9.44% (-0.081 -0.08)
0-2 @ 8.41% (-0.308 -0.31)
1-3 @ 7.75% (0.03 0.03)
0-3 @ 6.9% (-0.165 -0.17)
0-1 @ 6.83% (-0.34 -0.34)
1-4 @ 4.77% (0.077999999999999 0.08)
2-3 @ 4.35% (0.134 0.13)
0-4 @ 4.25% (-0.048 -0.05)
2-4 @ 2.68% (0.115 0.12)
1-5 @ 2.35% (0.067 0.07)
0-5 @ 2.09% (0.0030000000000001 0)
2-5 @ 1.32% (0.073 0.07)
3-4 @ 1% (0.069 0.07)
1-6 @ 0.96% (0.039 0.04)
Other @ 3.61%
Total : 66.71%