Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a New Zealand win with a probability of 53.38%. A draw had a probability of 25.5% and a win for Tahiti had a probability of 21.16%.
The most likely scoreline for a New Zealand win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.62%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.62%) and 2-1 (9.33%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.95%), while for a Tahiti win it was 0-1 (7.66%). The actual scoreline of 3-0 was predicted with a 5.5% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that New Zealand would win this match.