World Cup

World Cup Qualifying - Oceania | Group Stage

Oct 12, 2024 at 4am UK

Vanuatu
4 - 1
Samoa

Cooper (7', 7'), Alick (36', 36', 59', 59'), Kaloros (90+1', 90+1')
Wanemut (90+8'), Wanemut (90+8')

FT(HT: 4-0)

Viliamu (54', 54')
Chote (61'), Chote (61')

Coverage of the World Cup Qualifying - Oceania Group Stage clash between Vanuatu and Samoa.

Form, Standings, Stats

Vanuatu

Last Game: Vanuatu 2-3 Brunei
Tuesday, March 26 at 7pm in International Friendlies

Samoa

Last Game: Tonga 2-1 Samoa
Monday, September 9 at 3am in World Cup Qualifying - Oceania

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Samoa win with a probability of 52.41%. A win for Vanuatu had a probability of 24.7% and a draw had a probability of 22.9%.

The most likely scoreline for a Samoa win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.73%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (8.92%) and 0-2 (8.17%). The likeliest Vanuatu win was 2-1 (6.32%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.61%). The actual scoreline of 4-1 was predicted with a 0.7% likelihood.

Result
Vanuatu	Draw	Samoa
24.7% ( -0.73)	22.89% ( -0.51)	52.41% ( 1.24)

Both teams to score 58.43% (

0.98)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

58.17% (

1.66)

41.83% (

-1.65)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

35.77% (

1.65)

64.23% (

-1.64)

Vanuatu Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

69.57% (

0.3)

30.43% (

-0.3)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

33.37% (

0.36)

66.63% (

-0.36)

Samoa Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

83.99% (

1.05)

16.01% (

-1.05)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

54.66% (

1.89)

45.34% (

-1.89)

Score Analysis

Vanuatu 24.7%

Samoa 52.41%

Draw 22.88%

Vanuatu	Draw	Samoa
2-1 @ 6.32% ( -0.14) 1-0 @ 5.8% ( -0.39) 2-0 @ 3.45% ( -0.2) 3-1 @ 2.51% ( -0.03) 3-2 @ 2.3% ( 0.05) 3-0 @ 1.37% ( -0.07) Other @ 2.97% Total : 24.7%	1-1 @ 10.61% ( -0.32) 2-2 @ 5.79% ( 0.08) 0-0 @ 4.87% ( -0.37) 3-3 @ 1.4% ( 0.08) Other @ 0.21% Total : 22.88%	1-2 @ 9.73% ( 0.05) 0-1 @ 8.92% ( -0.35) 0-2 @ 8.17% ( -0.02) 1-3 @ 5.94% ( 0.24) 0-3 @ 4.99% ( 0.16) 2-3 @ 3.53% ( 0.17) 1-4 @ 2.72% ( 0.2) 0-4 @ 2.29% ( 0.15) 2-4 @ 1.62% ( 0.13) 1-5 @ 1% ( 0.11) Other @ 3.5% Total : 52.41%