New Caledonia national football team
Friendlies 3
Oct 8, 2023 at 7am UK
Stade Numa Daly
Vanuatu national football team

New Caledonia
4 - 0
Vanuatu

L. Bako (37'), Read (45'), Waia (57', 86')
Iwa (56')
FT(HT: 2-0)
Coverage of the International Friendlies Friendlies 3 clash between New Caledonia and Vanuatu.

Form, Standings, Stats

New Caledonia

Last Game: Tahiti 2-1 New Caledonia
Friday, March 24 at 6am in International Friendlies

Vanuatu

Last Game: Solomon Islands 2-0 Vanuatu
Thursday, March 23 at 5am in International Friendlies

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a New Caledonia win with a probability of 45.47%. A win for Vanuatu had a probability of 31.12% and a draw had a probability of 23.4%.

The most likely scoreline for a New Caledonia win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.17%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (7.6%) and 2-0 (6.57%). The likeliest Vanuatu win was 1-2 (7.4%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.6%). The actual scoreline of 4-0 was predicted with a 1.6% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that New Caledonia would win this match.

Result
New CaledoniaDrawVanuatu
45.47% (-0.972 -0.97)23.4% (-0.056999999999999 -0.06)31.12% (1.026 1.03)
Both teams to score 61.86% (0.801 0.8)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
60.39% (0.802 0.8)39.6% (-0.804 -0.8)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
38.05% (0.831 0.83)61.95% (-0.834 -0.83)
New Caledonia Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
82.24% (-0.069999999999993 -0.07)17.75% (0.067 0.07)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
51.56% (-0.119 -0.12)48.43% (0.117 0.12)
Vanuatu Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
75.21% (1.035 1.04)24.78% (-1.039 -1.04)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
40.64% (1.424 1.42)59.35% (-1.425 -1.43)
Score Analysis
    New Caledonia 45.47%
    Vanuatu 31.12%
    Draw 23.39%
New CaledoniaDrawVanuatu
2-1 @ 9.17% (-0.109 -0.11)
1-0 @ 7.6% (-0.306 -0.31)
2-0 @ 6.57% (-0.279 -0.28)
3-1 @ 5.29% (-0.074 -0.07)
3-0 @ 3.79% (-0.17 -0.17)
3-2 @ 3.69% (0.058 0.06)
4-1 @ 2.28% (-0.037 -0.04)
4-0 @ 1.64% (-0.077 -0.08)
4-2 @ 1.59% (0.021 0.02)
Other @ 3.85%
Total : 45.47%
1-1 @ 10.6% (-0.11 -0.11)
2-2 @ 6.4% (0.115 0.12)
0-0 @ 4.4% (-0.167 -0.17)
3-3 @ 1.71% (0.076 0.08)
Other @ 0.29%
Total : 23.39%
1-2 @ 7.4% (0.148 0.15)
0-1 @ 6.14% (-0.045 -0.04)
0-2 @ 4.28% (0.095000000000001 0.1)
1-3 @ 3.44% (0.168 0.17)
2-3 @ 2.98% (0.14 0.14)
0-3 @ 1.99% (0.101 0.1)
1-4 @ 1.2% (0.092 0.09)
2-4 @ 1.04% (0.077 0.08)
Other @ 2.66%
Total : 31.12%