World Cup

World Cup Qualifying - Oceania | Group Stage

Mar 24, 2022 at 5pm UK

New Zealand
7 - 1
New Caledonia

Greive (8', 45+2'), Rogerson (36' pen.), de Jong (75'), Tuiloma (81'), Wood (83', 89')
McCowatt (24')

FT(HT: 3-1)

Saiko (12')
Sansot (39'), Neoere (86'), Waya (90+4')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Thursday's World Cup Qualifying - Oceania clash between New Zealand and New Caledonia, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

New Zealand

Last Six:

Last Game: Peru 1-0 New Zealand
Sunday, June 5 at 4.30pm in International Friendlies

Next Game: Oman vs. New Zealand
Thursday, June 9 at 7pm in International Friendlies

Current Group A Standings		P	GD	PTS
1	Portugal	3	5	7
2	Mexico	3	2	7
3	Russia	3	0	3
4	New Zealand	3	-7	0

New Caledonia

Last Game: New Zealand 7-1 New Caledonia
Thursday, March 24 at 5pm in World Cup Qualifying - Oceania

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a New Zealand win with a probability of 53.09%. A win for New Caledonia had a probability of 24.33% and a draw had a probability of 22.6%.

The most likely scoreline for a New Zealand win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.74%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (8.71%) and 2-0 (8.14%). The likeliest New Caledonia win was 1-2 (6.24%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.42%). The actual scoreline of 7-1 was predicted with a 0.1% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that New Zealand would win this match.

Result
New Zealand	Draw	New Caledonia
53.09%	22.59%	24.33%

Both teams to score 59.04%

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

59.16%

40.84%

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

36.77%

63.23%

New Zealand Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

84.58%

15.42%

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

55.75%

44.25%

New Caledonia Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

69.8%

30.2%

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

33.64%

66.36%

Score Analysis

New Zealand 53.09%

New Caledonia 24.33%

Draw 22.58%

New Zealand	Draw	New Caledonia
2-1 @ 9.74% 1-0 @ 8.71% 2-0 @ 8.14% 3-1 @ 6.07% 3-0 @ 5.07% 3-2 @ 3.64% 4-1 @ 2.84% 4-0 @ 2.37% 4-2 @ 1.7% 5-1 @ 1.06% Other @ 3.76% Total : 53.09%	1-1 @ 10.42% 2-2 @ 5.83% 0-0 @ 4.66% 3-3 @ 1.45% Other @ 0.22% Total : 22.58%	1-2 @ 6.24% 0-1 @ 5.58% 0-2 @ 3.34% 1-3 @ 2.49% 2-3 @ 2.33% 0-3 @ 1.33% Other @ 3.02% Total : 24.33%