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World Cup

Tonga national football team
World Cup Qualifying - Oceania | Second Qualifying Round
Sep 9, 2024 at 3am UK
J.S. Blatter Football Complex Tuanaimato Field 1
Samoa national football team

Tonga
2 - 1
Samoa

Sonasi (45+1', 45+1')
Paea He Lotu Feke (43'), Paea He Lotu Feke (43'), U (120+2'), Lea'aetoa (120+2')
FT
(aet)
Lui Matai Salisbury (86', 86'), Faamatau (105+3', 105+3')
Junior Isaiah Malauulu (57'), Junior Isaiah Malauulu (57'), L (94'), Tuitele (94'), J (120+7'), Maiava (120+7')
Coverage of the World Cup Qualifying - Oceania Second Qualifying Round clash between Tonga and Samoa.

Form, Standings, Stats

Tonga

Last Game: Cook Islands 1-3 Tonga
Thursday, September 5 at 11pm in World Cup Qualifying - Oceania

Samoa

Last Game: American Samoa 2-0 Samoa
Friday, September 6 at 3am in World Cup Qualifying - Oceania

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Samoa win with a probability of 69.05%. A draw had a probability of 17% and a win for Tonga had a probability of 13.95%.

The most likely scoreline for a Samoa win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.4%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (8.91%) and 1-3 (7.87%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (7.49%), while for a Tonga win it was 2-1 (3.95%).

Result
TongaDrawSamoa
13.95%17%69.05%
Both teams to score 59.88%
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
69.12%30.88%
Over 3.5Under 3.5
47.76%52.24%
Tonga Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
65.17%34.83%
Over 1.5Under 1.5
28.44%71.56%
Samoa Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
91.88%8.12%
Over 1.5Under 1.5
71.5%28.49%
Score Analysis
    Tonga 13.95%
    Samoa 69.05%
    Draw 17%
TongaDrawSamoa
2-1 @ 3.95%
1-0 @ 2.98%
3-2 @ 1.74%
2-0 @ 1.57%
3-1 @ 1.39%
Other @ 2.32%
Total : 13.95%
1-1 @ 7.49%
2-2 @ 4.96%
0-0 @ 2.83%
3-3 @ 1.46%
Other @ 0.27%
Total : 17%
1-2 @ 9.4%
0-2 @ 8.91%
1-3 @ 7.87%
0-3 @ 7.46%
0-1 @ 7.1%
1-4 @ 4.94%
0-4 @ 4.69%
2-3 @ 4.15%
2-4 @ 2.61%
1-5 @ 2.48%
0-5 @ 2.35%
2-5 @ 1.31%
1-6 @ 1.04%
0-6 @ 0.99%
3-4 @ 0.92%
Other @ 2.83%
Total : 69.05%