Montrose
Scottish Challenge Cup | Third Round
Sep 24, 2022 at 2pm UK
Links Park

Montrose
4 - 2
Kilmarnock II

Gardyne (17'), Brown (74', 81'), Johnston (89')
FT(HT: 1-0)
Warnock (51', 66' pen.)
Coverage of the Scottish Challenge Cup Third Round clash between Montrose and Kilmarnock II.

Form, Standings, Stats

Montrose

Last Six:
Last Game: Alloa 2-1 Montrose
Saturday, September 17 at 3pm in Scottish League One

Ayr United

Last Six:
Last Game: Morton 1-1 Ayr (5-4 pen.)
Thursday, September 22 at 7.45pm in Scottish Challenge Cup

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Montrose win with a probability of 73.13%. A draw had a probability of 16.2% and a win for Kilmarnock II had a probability of 10.65%.

The most likely scoreline for a Montrose win was 2-0 with a probability of 11.26%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.36%) and 3-0 (9.24%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (7.61%), while for a Kilmarnock II win it was 1-2 (3.16%). The actual scoreline of 4-2 was predicted with a 2% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Montrose would win this match.

Result
MontroseDrawKilmarnock II
73.13% (-0.061000000000007 -0.06)16.22% (0.038 0.04)10.65% (0.027000000000001 0.03)
Both teams to score 51.59% (-0.027999999999999 -0.03)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
63.86% (-0.088999999999999 -0.09)36.13% (0.093000000000004 0.09)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
41.75% (-0.097999999999999 -0.1)58.24% (0.102 0.1)
Montrose Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
91.45% (-0.033000000000001 -0.03)8.54% (0.037099999999999 0.04)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
70.44% (-0.085999999999999 -0.09)29.56% (0.09 0.09)
Kilmarnock II Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
56.41% (-0.009999999999998 -0.01)43.59% (0.013999999999996 0.01)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
20.21% (-0.009999999999998 -0.01)79.78% (0.01400000000001 0.01)
Score Analysis
    Montrose 73.12%
    Kilmarnock II 10.65%
    Draw 16.22%
MontroseDrawKilmarnock II
2-0 @ 11.26% (0.0099999999999998 0.01)
2-1 @ 9.36% (0.0069999999999997 0.01)
3-0 @ 9.24% (-0.0060000000000002 -0.01)
1-0 @ 9.16% (0.026 0.03)
3-1 @ 7.67% (-0.0069999999999997 -0.01)
4-0 @ 5.68% (-0.014 -0.01)
4-1 @ 4.72% (-0.013 -0.01)
3-2 @ 3.19% (-0.004 -0)
5-0 @ 2.8% (-0.012 -0.01)
5-1 @ 2.32% (-0.0099999999999998 -0.01)
4-2 @ 1.96% (-0.006 -0.01)
6-0 @ 1.15% (-0.006 -0.01)
5-2 @ 0.96% (-0.005 -0.01)
6-1 @ 0.95% (-0.006 -0.01)
Other @ 2.71%
Total : 73.12%
1-1 @ 7.61% (0.019 0.02)
2-2 @ 3.89% (0.0019999999999998 0)
0-0 @ 3.72% (0.018 0.02)
Other @ 1.01%
Total : 16.22%
1-2 @ 3.16% (0.0070000000000001 0.01)
0-1 @ 3.09% (0.013 0.01)
0-2 @ 1.28% (0.0050000000000001 0.01)
2-3 @ 1.08%
Other @ 2.04%
Total : 10.65%

Head to Head
Aug 29, 2017 7.45pm
Ayr
1-1
Montrose
 Montrose win 6-5 on penalties
Moore (29')
Campbell (4')