Greenock Morton
Scottish Challenge Cup | Third Round
Sep 22, 2022 at 7.45pm UK
Cappielow Park
Ayr United

Morton
1 - 1
Ayr

McGregor (12')
FT
(aet)
Mullin (39')
Morton win 5-4 on penalties
Coverage of the Scottish Challenge Cup Third Round clash between Greenock Morton and Ayr United.

Form, Standings, Stats

Greenock Morton

Last Six:
Last Game: Morton 1-2 Arbroath
Saturday, September 17 at 3pm in Scottish Championship

Ayr United

Last Six:
Last Game: Raith Rovers 3-2 Ayr
Saturday, September 17 at 3pm in Scottish Championship

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Greenock Morton win with a probability of 45.68%. A win for Ayr United had a probability of 28.68% and a draw had a probability of 25.6%.

The most likely scoreline for a Greenock Morton win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.73%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.17%) and 2-0 (8.07%). The likeliest Ayr United win was 0-1 (8.11%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.19%).

Result
Greenock MortonDrawAyr United
45.68% (1.292 1.29)25.64% (-0.477 -0.48)28.68% (-0.815 -0.81)
Both teams to score 52.8% (1.007 1.01)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
49.15% (1.532 1.53)50.85% (-1.533 -1.53)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
27.27% (1.333 1.33)72.73% (-1.335 -1.33)
Greenock Morton Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
77.77% (1.264 1.26)22.23% (-1.266 -1.27)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
44.34% (1.863 1.86)55.66% (-1.866 -1.87)
Ayr United Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
67.89% (0.19300000000001 0.19)32.1% (-0.195 -0.2)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
31.42% (0.221 0.22)68.58% (-0.22199999999999 -0.22)
Score Analysis
    Greenock Morton 45.68%
    Ayr United 28.68%
    Draw 25.64%
Greenock MortonDrawAyr United
1-0 @ 10.73% (-0.26 -0.26)
2-1 @ 9.17% (0.171 0.17)
2-0 @ 8.07% (0.109 0.11)
3-1 @ 4.6% (0.252 0.25)
3-0 @ 4.04% (0.201 0.2)
3-2 @ 2.61% (0.156 0.16)
4-1 @ 1.73% (0.154 0.15)
4-0 @ 1.52% (0.128 0.13)
4-2 @ 0.98% (0.092 0.09)
Other @ 2.24%
Total : 45.68%
1-1 @ 12.19% (-0.23 -0.23)
0-0 @ 7.14% (-0.451 -0.45)
2-2 @ 5.21% (0.125 0.13)
3-3 @ 0.99% (0.064 0.06)
Other @ 0.11%
Total : 25.64%
0-1 @ 8.11% (-0.467 -0.47)
1-2 @ 6.93% (-0.092000000000001 -0.09)
0-2 @ 4.61% (-0.239 -0.24)
1-3 @ 2.62% (-0.02 -0.02)
2-3 @ 1.97% (0.058 0.06)
0-3 @ 1.75% (-0.081 -0.08)
Other @ 2.69%
Total : 28.68%

How you voted: Morton vs Ayr

Greenock Morton
33.3%
Draw
16.7%
Ayr United
50.0%
6
Head to Head
Sep 3, 2022 3pm
Morton
1-2
Ayr
Muirhead (80')
Pignatiello (70'), O'Connor (90+2')
Akinyemi (34'), McKenzie (74')
Houston (8'), Reading (45'), Kirk (73'), Mitchell-Lawson (82')
Mar 26, 2022 3pm
Morton
1-1
Ayr
Blues (38')
Ugwu (90')
Adeloye (79')
Bryden (84')
Jan 15, 2022 3pm
Ayr
0-2
Morton

Adeloye (38'), McGinty (59'), Bryden (86'), Gondoh (87')
Reilly (27', 61')
Dec 4, 2021 3pm
Morton
2-2
Ayr
Ugwu (26', 84')
Russell (54')
Bradley (73'), Adeloye (77')
Sep 25, 2021 3pm
Ayr
0-0
Morton