| Current League Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 8 | Raith Rovers | 6 | -3 | 6 |
| 9 | Cove Rangers | 6 | -4 | 4 |
| 10 | Arbroath | 6 | -6 | 2 |
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Greenock Morton win with a probability of 37.29%. A win for Arbroath had a probability of 33.9% and a draw had a probability of 28.8%.
The most likely scoreline for a Greenock Morton win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.29%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (7.7%) and 2-0 (7.09%). The likeliest Arbroath win was 0-1 (11.56%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.34%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with a 7.2% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Greenock Morton | Draw | Arbroath |
| 37.29% ( | 28.8% ( | 33.9% ( |
| Both teams to score 45.33% ( |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 38.77% ( | 61.23% ( |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 18.83% ( | 81.16% ( |
| Greenock Morton Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 68.44% ( | 31.55% ( |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 32.05% ( | 67.95% ( |
| Arbroath Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 66.22% ( | 33.77% ( |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 29.56% ( | 70.43% ( |
| Score Analysis |
| Greenock Morton | Draw | Arbroath |
| 1-0 @ 12.29% ( 2-1 @ 7.7% ( 2-0 @ 7.09% ( 3-1 @ 2.96% ( 3-0 @ 2.73% ( 3-2 @ 1.61% ( Other @ 2.93% Total : 37.29% | 1-1 @ 13.34% ( 0-0 @ 10.65% ( 2-2 @ 4.18% ( Other @ 0.63% Total : 28.8% | 0-1 @ 11.56% ( 1-2 @ 7.24% ( 0-2 @ 6.28% ( 1-3 @ 2.62% ( 0-3 @ 2.27% ( 2-3 @ 1.51% ( Other @ 2.41% Total : 33.89% |