Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Greenock Morton win with a probability of 44.38%. A win for Arbroath had a probability of 28.73% and a draw had a probability of 26.9%.
The most likely scoreline for a Greenock Morton win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.99%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.83%) and 2-0 (8.32%). The likeliest Arbroath win was 0-1 (9.17%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.72%). The actual scoreline of 2-2 was predicted with a 4.7% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Greenock Morton | Draw | Arbroath |
| 44.38% | 26.89% | 28.73% |
| Both teams to score 49.05% |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 44.28% | 55.72% |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 23.14% | 76.86% |
| Greenock Morton Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 75.03% | 24.97% |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 40.39% | 59.62% |
| Arbroath Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 65.37% | 34.63% |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 28.65% | 71.35% |
| Score Analysis |
| Greenock Morton | Draw | Arbroath |
| 1-0 @ 11.99% 2-1 @ 8.83% 2-0 @ 8.32% 3-1 @ 4.08% 3-0 @ 3.85% 3-2 @ 2.17% 4-1 @ 1.42% 4-0 @ 1.34% Other @ 2.39% Total : 44.38% | 1-1 @ 12.72% 0-0 @ 8.65% 2-2 @ 4.68% Other @ 0.84% Total : 26.89% | 0-1 @ 9.17% 1-2 @ 6.75% 0-2 @ 4.86% 1-3 @ 2.39% 0-3 @ 1.72% 2-3 @ 1.66% Other @ 2.19% Total : 28.73% |