Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Pogon Szczecin win with a probability of 49.66%. A win for Jagiellonia Bialystok had a probability of 28.24% and a draw had a probability of 22.1%.

The most likely scoreline for a Pogon Szczecin win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.29%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (6.8%) and 2-0 (6.57%). The likeliest Jagiellonia Bialystok win was 1-2 (6.81%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (9.63%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 9.3% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 2-1 win for Pogon Szczecin in this match.

Result
Pogon Szczecin	Draw	Jagiellonia Bialystok
49.66% ( -0.37)	22.1% ( 0.15)	28.24% ( 0.23)

Both teams to score 64.73% (

-0.36)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

64.97% (

-0.55)

35.03% (

0.56)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

42.98% (

-0.62)

57.02% (

0.62)

Pogon Szczecin Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

85.51% (

-0.32)

14.5% (

0.32)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

57.51% (

-0.63)

42.49% (

0.63)

Jagiellonia Bialystok Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

75.7% (

-0.14)

24.3% (

0.14)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

41.32% (

-0.2)

58.68% (

0.2)

Score Analysis

Pogon Szczecin 49.66%

Jagiellonia Bialystok 28.24%

Draw 22.1%

Pogon Szczecin	Draw	Jagiellonia Bialystok
2-1 @ 9.29% ( 0.01) 1-0 @ 6.8% ( 0.11) 2-0 @ 6.57% ( 0.03) 3-1 @ 5.98% ( -0.06) 3-2 @ 4.23% ( -0.06) 3-0 @ 4.23% ( -0.03) 4-1 @ 2.89% ( -0.07) 4-2 @ 2.04% ( -0.05) 4-0 @ 2.04% ( -0.04) 5-1 @ 1.12% ( -0.04) 4-3 @ 0.96% ( -0.03) Other @ 3.5% Total : 49.66%	1-1 @ 9.63% ( 0.12) 2-2 @ 6.57% ( -0.02) 0-0 @ 3.52% ( 0.1) 3-3 @ 2% ( -0.04) Other @ 0.38% Total : 22.1%	1-2 @ 6.81% ( 0.06) 0-1 @ 4.98% ( 0.12) 0-2 @ 3.53% ( 0.07) 1-3 @ 3.21% ( 0.01) 2-3 @ 3.1% ( -0.02) 0-3 @ 1.66% ( 0.03) 1-4 @ 1.14% ( 0) 2-4 @ 1.1% ( -0.01) Other @ 2.72% Total : 28.24%