Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Jagiellonia Bialystok win with a probability of 40.56%. A win for Radomiak Radom had a probability of 33.5% and a draw had a probability of 25.9%.
The most likely scoreline for a Jagiellonia Bialystok win was 1-0 with a probability of 9.82%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.67%) and 2-0 (6.91%). The likeliest Radomiak Radom win was 0-1 (8.76%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.32%). The actual scoreline of 3-2 was predicted with a 2.6% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Jagiellonia Bialystok would win this match.