Polish Ekstraklasa | Gameweek 6
Aug 27, 2023 at 4.30pm UK
Stadion Miejski

Jagiellonia
4 - 1
Gornik

Naranjo (7'), Imaz (17'), Wdowik (45'), Marczuk (64')
Romanczuk (33'), Wdowik (42')
FT(HT: 3-1)
Musiolik (38')
Yokota (5'), Janza (80')
Lukoszek (43')
Coverage of the Polish Ekstraklasa clash between Jagiellonia Bialystok and Gornik Zabrze.

Form, Standings, Stats

Jagiellonia Bialystok

All competitions
Last Game: Ruch Chorzow 0-1 Jagiellonia
Saturday, August 19 at 7pm in Polish Ekstraklasa

Gornik Zabrze

All competitions
Last Game: Gornik 1-1 Widzew Lodz
Friday, August 18 at 7.30pm in Polish Ekstraklasa

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Jagiellonia Bialystok win with a probability of 43.66%. A win for Gornik Zabrze had a probability of 31.17% and a draw had a probability of 25.2%.

The most likely scoreline for a Jagiellonia Bialystok win was 1-0 with a probability of 9.55%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.06%) and 2-0 (7.26%). The likeliest Gornik Zabrze win was 0-1 (7.82%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.9%). The actual scoreline of 4-1 was predicted with a 1.7% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Jagiellonia Bialystok would win this match.

Result
Jagiellonia BialystokDrawGornik Zabrze
43.66% (0.325 0.33)25.17% (-0.117 -0.12)31.17% (-0.202 -0.2)
Both teams to score 55.7% (0.302 0.3)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
52.31% (0.435 0.43)47.69% (-0.431 -0.43)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
30.11% (0.4 0.4)69.89% (-0.39500000000001 -0.4)
Jagiellonia Bialystok Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
78.17% (0.337 0.34)21.83% (-0.332 -0.33)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
44.94% (0.508 0.51)55.06% (-0.503 -0.5)
Gornik Zabrze Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
71.26% (0.083999999999989 0.08)28.74% (-0.077999999999999 -0.08)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
35.43% (0.102 0.1)64.57% (-0.096000000000004 -0.1)
Score Analysis
    Jagiellonia Bialystok 43.66%
    Gornik Zabrze 31.17%
    Draw 25.17%
Jagiellonia BialystokDrawGornik Zabrze
1-0 @ 9.55% (-0.075999999999999 -0.08)
2-1 @ 9.06% (0.039 0.04)
2-0 @ 7.26% (0.015000000000001 0.02)
3-1 @ 4.6% (0.065 0.06)
3-0 @ 3.69% (0.045 0.04)
3-2 @ 2.87% (0.047 0.05)
4-1 @ 1.75% (0.042 0.04)
4-0 @ 1.4% (0.031 0.03)
4-2 @ 1.09% (0.029 0.03)
Other @ 2.4%
Total : 43.66%
1-1 @ 11.9% (-0.07 -0.07)
0-0 @ 6.27% (-0.113 -0.11)
2-2 @ 5.65% (0.037 0.04)
3-3 @ 1.19% (0.022 0.02)
Other @ 0.15%
Total : 25.17%
0-1 @ 7.82% (-0.123 -0.12)
1-2 @ 7.42% (-0.024999999999999 -0.02)
0-2 @ 4.88% (-0.066 -0.07)
1-3 @ 3.09% (-0.004 -0)
2-3 @ 2.35% (0.021 0.02)
0-3 @ 2.03% (-0.023 -0.02)
1-4 @ 0.96% (0.001 0)
Other @ 2.62%
Total : 31.17%