Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Lech Poznan win with a probability of 64.25%. A draw had a probability of 19.8% and a win for Jagiellonia Bialystok had a probability of 15.96%.
The most likely scoreline for a Lech Poznan win was 2-0 with a probability of 10.28%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.91%) and 1-0 (9.63%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.27%), while for a Jagiellonia Bialystok win it was 1-2 (4.46%). The actual scoreline of 3-3 was predicted with a 1.1% likelihood.