Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Legia Warsaw win with a probability of 39.07%. A win for Pogon Szczecin had a probability of 36.5% and a draw had a probability of 24.4%.
The most likely scoreline for a Legia Warsaw win was 1-2 with a probability of 8.56%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (7.77%) and 0-2 (5.88%). The likeliest Pogon Szczecin win was 2-1 (8.23%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.3%). The actual scoreline of 3-4 was predicted with a 0.6% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Legia Warsaw would win this match.