UEFA Nations League

Nations League | League A

Oct 11, 2020 at 5pm UK

Stadion Maksimir

Croatia
2 - 1
Sweden

Vlasic (32'), Kramaric (84')
Kovacic (2'), Brozovic (45')

FT(HT: 1-0)

Berg (66')
Larsson (90+4')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Sunday's UEFA Nations League fixture between Croatia and Sweden, including team news and predicted lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Croatia

All competitions

Last Game: Montenegro 2-3 Croatia
Monday, November 17 at 7.45pm in World Cup Qualifying - Europe

Current League A1 Standings		P	GD	PTS
1	Portugal	6	8	14
2	Croatia	6	0	8
3	Scotland	6	-1	7
4	Poland	6	-7	4

Sweden

All competitions

Last Game: Sweden 1-1 Slovenia
Tuesday, November 18 at 7.45pm in World Cup Qualifying - Europe

Current League C1 Standings		P	GD	PTS
1	Sweden	0	0	0
2	Estonia	0	0	0
3	Azerbaijan	0	0	0
4	Slovakia	0	0	0

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Croatia win with a probability of 52.58%. A draw had a probability of 24.5% and a win for Sweden had a probability of 22.88%.

The most likely scoreline for a Croatia win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.7%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.64%) and 2-1 (9.61%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.67%), while for a Sweden win it was 0-1 (7.09%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 9.6% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Croatia would win this match.

Result
Croatia	Draw	Sweden
52.58%	24.54%	22.88%

Both teams to score 50.95%

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

49.26%

50.74%

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

27.36%

72.64%

Croatia Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

80.74%

19.26%

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

49.01%

50.99%

Sweden Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

63.11%

36.89%

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

26.32%

73.68%

Score Analysis

Croatia 52.58%

Sweden 22.88%

Draw 24.54%

Croatia	Draw	Sweden
1-0 @ 11.7% 2-0 @ 9.64% 2-1 @ 9.61% 3-0 @ 5.29% 3-1 @ 5.28% 3-2 @ 2.63% 4-0 @ 2.18% 4-1 @ 2.17% 4-2 @ 1.08% Other @ 2.99% Total : 52.58%	1-1 @ 11.67% 0-0 @ 7.11% 2-2 @ 4.79% Other @ 0.97% Total : 24.54%	0-1 @ 7.09% 1-2 @ 5.82% 0-2 @ 3.53% 1-3 @ 1.93% 2-3 @ 1.59% 0-3 @ 1.17% Other @ 1.74% Total : 22.88%