UEFA Nations League header

UEFA Nations League

Portugal national football team
Nations League | League A
Sep 5, 2020 at 7.45pm UK
Estádio Do Dragão
Croatia national football team

Portugal
4 - 1
Croatia

Cancelo (41'), Jota (58'), Felix (70'), Silva (90+5')
FT(HT: 1-0)
Petkovic (90+1')
Jedvaj (60'), Barisic (71')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Saturday's UEFA Nations League clash between Portugal and Croatia, including team news and predicted lineups.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Portugal win with a probability of 59.25%. A draw had a probability of 22.5% and a win for Croatia had a probability of 18.26%.

The most likely scoreline for a Portugal win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.73%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.8%) and 2-1 (9.85%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.7%), while for a Croatia win it was 0-1 (5.81%). The actual scoreline of 4-1 was predicted with a 2.8% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Portugal would win this match.

Result
PortugalDrawCroatia
59.25%22.5%18.26%
Both teams to score 50.32%
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
51.92%48.08%
Over 3.5Under 3.5
29.75%70.25%
Portugal Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
84.13%15.87%
Over 1.5Under 1.5
54.92%45.08%
Croatia Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
59.81%40.18%
Over 1.5Under 1.5
23.18%76.82%
Score Analysis
    Portugal 59.23%
    Croatia 18.26%
    Draw 22.5%
PortugalDrawCroatia
1-0 @ 11.73%
2-0 @ 10.8%
2-1 @ 9.85%
3-0 @ 6.63%
3-1 @ 6.05%
4-0 @ 3.05%
4-1 @ 2.78%
3-2 @ 2.76%
4-2 @ 1.27%
5-0 @ 1.12%
5-1 @ 1.02%
Other @ 2.17%
Total : 59.23%
1-1 @ 10.7%
0-0 @ 6.38%
2-2 @ 4.49%
Other @ 0.93%
Total : 22.5%
0-1 @ 5.81%
1-2 @ 4.88%
0-2 @ 2.65%
1-3 @ 1.48%
2-3 @ 1.37%
Other @ 2.07%
Total : 18.26%