Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Almere City win with a probability of 41.14%. A win for Fortuna Sittard had a probability of 35.35% and a draw had a probability of 23.51%.
The most likely scoreline for a Almere City win was 1-2 with a probability of 8.7%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (6.95%) and 0-2 (5.74%). The likeliest Fortuna Sittard win was 2-1 (7.99%) , while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.54%). The actual scoreline of 2-3 was predicted with a 3.6% likelihood.