Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Fortuna Sittard win with a probability of 38.04%. A win for PEC Zwolle had a probability of 36.7% and a draw had a probability of 25.25%.
The most likely scoreline for a Fortuna Sittard win was 0-1 with a probability of 8.58%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.43%) and 0-2 (6.08%). The likeliest PEC Zwolle win was 1-0 (8.4%) , while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.9%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with an 8.4% likelihood.