Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Uniao de Leiria win with a probability of 45.17%. A win for Vila Mea had a probability of 28.41% and a draw had a probability of 26.42%.
The most likely scoreline for a Uniao de Leiria win was 0-1 with a probability of 11.63%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.98%) and 0-2 (8.33%). The likeliest Vila Mea win was 1-0 (8.76%) , while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.54%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with an 11.6% likelihood.