Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Uniao de Leiria win with a probability of 45.53%. A win for Nacional had a probability of 28.77% and a draw had a probability of 25.7%.
The most likely scoreline for a Uniao de Leiria win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.77%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.15%) and 2-0 (8.06%). The likeliest Nacional win was 0-1 (8.17%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.22%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 9.1% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Uniao de Leiria would win this match.