Taca de Portugal | Third Round

Oct 20, 2024 at 3pm UK

Estadio Dr. Magalhaes Pessoa

Uniao de Leiria
2 - 1
Nacional

Baixinho (33'), dos Anjos (79' pen.)
Baro Ortiz (23'), dos Anjos (52'), Sylla (64'), Guilherme da Silva Pae (68')

FT(HT: 1-0)

Dias (66' pen.)
Aurelio (59'), Vitor (61'), Esteves (68'), Penha (72'), Ulisses (84')

Coverage of the Taca de Portugal Third Round clash between Uniao de Leiria and Nacional.

Form, Standings, Stats

Uniao de Leiria

Last Game: Torreense 0-0 Uniao de Leiria
Saturday, August 3 at 6pm in Club Friendlies 3

Nacional

All competitions

Last Game: Famalicao 0-0 Nacional
Sunday, September 29 at 3.30pm in Primeira Liga

Goals
for

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Uniao de Leiria win with a probability of 45.53%. A win for Nacional had a probability of 28.77% and a draw had a probability of 25.7%.

The most likely scoreline for a Uniao de Leiria win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.77%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.15%) and 2-0 (8.06%). The likeliest Nacional win was 0-1 (8.17%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.22%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 9.1% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Uniao de Leiria would win this match.

Result
Uniao de Leiria	Draw	Nacional
45.53% ( 0.01)	25.7% ( -0.03)	28.77% ( 0.02)

Both teams to score 52.66% (

0.1)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

48.94% (

0.13)

51.06% (

-0.13)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

27.08% (

0.11)

72.91% (

-0.11)

Uniao de Leiria Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

77.61% (

0.05)

22.39% (

-0.06)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

44.1% (

0.09)

55.9% (

-0.09)

Nacional Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

67.85% (

0.08)

32.14% (

-0.08)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

31.37% (

0.09)

68.62% (

-0.1)

Score Analysis

Uniao de Leiria 45.53%

Nacional 28.77%

Draw 25.7%

Uniao de Leiria	Draw	Nacional
1-0 @ 10.77% ( -0.03) 2-1 @ 9.15% ( 0.01) 2-0 @ 8.06% ( -0.01) 3-1 @ 4.56% ( 0.01) 3-0 @ 4.02% ( 0) 3-2 @ 2.59% ( 0.01) 4-1 @ 1.71% ( 0.01) 4-0 @ 1.5% ( 0) 4-2 @ 0.97% ( 0.01) Other @ 2.2% Total : 45.53%	1-1 @ 12.22% ( -0.01) 0-0 @ 7.2% ( -0.04) 2-2 @ 5.19% ( 0.01) 3-3 @ 0.98% ( 0.01) Other @ 0.11% Total : 25.7%	0-1 @ 8.17% ( -0.03) 1-2 @ 6.94% ( 0.01) 0-2 @ 4.64% ( -0) 1-3 @ 2.62% ( 0.01) 2-3 @ 1.96% ( 0.01) 0-3 @ 1.75% ( 0) Other @ 2.68% Total : 28.77%