Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Lugano win with a probability of 39.24%. A win for FC Zurich had a probability of 37.86% and a draw had a probability of 22.9%.
The most likely scoreline for a Lugano win was 1-2 with a probability of 8.34%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (6.01%) and 0-2 (5.06%). The likeliest FC Zurich win was 2-1 (8.18%) , while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (9.92%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with a 6% likelihood.