Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Lugano win with a probability of 41.43%. A win for Servette had a probability of 35.1% and a draw had a probability of 23.47%.
The most likely scoreline for a Lugano win was 2-1 with a probability of 8.73%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (6.95%) and 2-0 (5.77%). The likeliest Servette win was 1-2 (7.95%) , while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.51%). The actual scoreline of 4-2 was predicted with a 1.5% likelihood.