Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Basel win with a probability of 42.76%. A win for Luzern had a probability of 34.67% and a draw had a probability of 22.57%.
The most likely scoreline for a Basel win was 1-2 with a probability of 8.65%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (6.03%) and 0-2 (5.41%). The likeliest Luzern win was 2-1 (7.71%) , while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (9.65%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with an 8.6% likelihood.