Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Basel win with a probability of 43.72%. A win for Aston Villa had a probability of 32.26% and a draw had a probability of 24.01%.
The most likely scoreline for a Basel win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.06%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (8.04%) and 2-0 (6.58%). The likeliest Aston Villa win was 1-2 (7.61%) , while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.06%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with a 7.6% likelihood.