Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Arsenal win with a probability of 45.06%. A win for Aston Villa had a probability of 28.35% and a draw had a probability of 26.59%.
The most likely scoreline for a Arsenal win was 0-1 with a probability of 11.81%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.94%) and 0-2 (8.38%). The likeliest Aston Villa win was 1-0 (8.89%) , while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.6%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 6.7% likelihood.