League Two

League Two | 2nd Leg

May 20, 2023 at 3pm UK

Brunton Park

Carlisle
3 - 1
Bradford

(Carlisle United win 3-2 on aggregate)

Halliday (21' og., 21' og.), Guy (98'), Barclay (112')

FT
(aet)

Derbyshire (106')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Saturday's League Two clash between Carlisle United and Bradford City, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Carlisle United

All competitions

Last Game: Bradford 1-0 Carlisle
Sunday, May 14 at 7pm in League Two

Goals
for

Top scorers

Bradford City

All competitions

Last Game: Bradford 1-0 Carlisle
Sunday, May 14 at 7pm in League Two

Goals
for

Top scorers

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Carlisle United win with a probability of 36.62%. A win for Bradford City had a probability of 35.32% and a draw had a probability of 28.1%.

The most likely scoreline for a Carlisle United win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.38%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (7.8%) and 2-0 (6.74%). The likeliest Bradford City win was 0-1 (11.13%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.18%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 3.1% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Carlisle United would win this match.

Result
Carlisle United	Draw	Bradford City
36.62% ( 0.2)	28.06% ( 0.01)	35.32% ( -0.2)

Both teams to score 47.59% (

-0.03)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

41.5% (

-0.03)

58.5% (

0.04)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

20.92% (

-0.02)

79.08% (

0.03)

Carlisle United Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

69.4% (

0.11)

30.6% (

-0.1)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

33.17% (

0.12)

66.84% (

-0.12)

Bradford City Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

68.58% (

-0.14)

31.42% (

0.15)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

32.2% (

-0.17)

67.8% (

0.17)

Score Analysis

Carlisle United 36.61%

Bradford City 35.32%

Draw 28.06%

Carlisle United	Draw	Bradford City
1-0 @ 11.38% ( 0.05) 2-1 @ 7.8% ( 0.02) 2-0 @ 6.74% ( 0.05) 3-1 @ 3.08% ( 0.02) 3-0 @ 2.66% ( 0.03) 3-2 @ 1.78% ( 0) 4-1 @ 0.91% ( 0.01) Other @ 2.25% Total : 36.61%	1-1 @ 13.18% ( 0.01) 0-0 @ 9.62% ( 0.01) 2-2 @ 4.52% ( -0) Other @ 0.75% Total : 28.06%	0-1 @ 11.13% ( -0.03) 1-2 @ 7.63% ( -0.03) 0-2 @ 6.44% ( -0.04) 1-3 @ 2.94% ( -0.02) 0-3 @ 2.49% ( -0.03) 2-3 @ 1.74% ( -0.01) Other @ 2.94% Total : 35.32%