J1 League | Gameweek 24
Jul 21, 2024 at 11am UK
Ekimae Real Estate Stadium (Tosu)

Sagan Tosu
1 - 4
Hiroshima

Ryan (46')
Yamazaki (6'), Fukuta (41')
FT(HT: 0-1)
Junior (21'), Matsumoto (71'), Ohashi (87'), Mitsuta (90+6')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Sunday's J1 League clash between Sagan Tosu and Sanfrecce Hiroshima, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Sagan Tosu

All competitions
Last Game: Sagan Tosu 0-2 Gamba Osaka
Sunday, July 14 at 11am in J1 League

Sanfrecce Hiroshima

All competitions
Last Game: Hiroshima 1-0 Avispa Fukuoka
Sunday, July 14 at 10.30am in J1 League

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Sanfrecce Hiroshima win with a probability of 59.66%. A draw had a probability of 22.3% and a win for Sagan Tosu had a probability of 18.05%.

The most likely scoreline for a Sanfrecce Hiroshima win was 0-1 with a probability of 11.6%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (10.79%) and 1-2 (9.87%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.6%), while for a Sagan Tosu win it was 1-0 (5.7%). The actual scoreline of 1-4 was predicted with a 2.9% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Sanfrecce Hiroshima would win this match.

Result
Sagan TosuDrawSanfrecce Hiroshima
18.05% (-1.25 -1.25)22.29% (-0.011999999999997 -0.01)59.66% (1.268 1.27)
Both teams to score 50.59% (-2.197 -2.2)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
52.47% (-1.805 -1.81)47.53% (1.81 1.81)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
30.26% (-1.692 -1.69)69.74% (1.699 1.7)
Sagan Tosu Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
59.9% (-2.455 -2.46)40.1% (2.462 2.46)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
23.26% (-2.321 -2.32)76.74% (2.327 2.33)
Sanfrecce Hiroshima Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
84.46% (-0.193 -0.19)15.54% (0.199 0.2)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
55.52% (-0.367 -0.37)44.48% (0.373 0.37)
Score Analysis
    Sagan Tosu 18.05%
    Sanfrecce Hiroshima 59.64%
    Draw 22.29%
Sagan TosuDrawSanfrecce Hiroshima
1-0 @ 5.7% (0.052 0.05)
2-1 @ 4.85% (-0.323 -0.32)
2-0 @ 2.6% (-0.155 -0.16)
3-1 @ 1.48% (-0.208 -0.21)
3-2 @ 1.37% (-0.204 -0.2)
Other @ 2.06%
Total : 18.05%
1-1 @ 10.6% (0.029999999999999 0.03)
0-0 @ 6.23% (0.457 0.46)
2-2 @ 4.51% (-0.335 -0.34)
Other @ 0.95%
Total : 22.29%
0-1 @ 11.6% (0.78 0.78)
0-2 @ 10.79% (0.65 0.65)
1-2 @ 9.87% (-0.045 -0.04)
0-3 @ 6.7% (0.362 0.36)
1-3 @ 6.12% (-0.07 -0.07)
0-4 @ 3.12% (0.148 0.15)
1-4 @ 2.85% (-0.053 -0.05)
2-3 @ 2.8% (-0.229 -0.23)
2-4 @ 1.3% (-0.116 -0.12)
0-5 @ 1.16% (0.047 0.05)
1-5 @ 1.06% (-0.027 -0.03)
Other @ 2.27%
Total : 59.64%

How you voted: Sagan Tosu vs Hiroshima

Sagan Tosu
17.6%
Draw
23.5%
Sanfrecce Hiroshima
58.8%
17
Head to Head
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Hiroshima
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Sagan Tosu
Shiotani (18'), Kawamura (31'), Soteriou (51' pen.), Nakano (90+6')

Tezuka (55'), Togashi (69'), Harada (82')
Sep 2, 2023 11am
Gameweek 26
Sagan Tosu
0-2
Hiroshima
Soteriou (3'), Vieira (79')
Junior (45+2'), Kawamura (67')
Apr 9, 2023 6am
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Hiroshima
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Sagan Tosu
Vieira (75')
Nov 5, 2022 5am
Gameweek 34
Sagan Tosu
2-2
Hiroshima
Feb 19, 2022 5am
Gameweek 1
Hiroshima
0-0
Sagan Tosu