J1 League | Gameweek 21
Jun 30, 2024 at 11am UK
Ekimae Real Estate Stadium (Tosu)

Sagan Tosu
1 - 4
Reysol

Ryan (37')
Kim (78')
FT(HT: 1-0)
Savio (62' pen., 64'), Kinoshita (72', 90')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Sunday's J1 League clash between Sagan Tosu and Kashiwa Reysol, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Sagan Tosu

All competitions
Last Game: Cerezo 1-0 Sagan Tosu
Wednesday, June 26 at 11am in J1 League

Kashiwa Reysol

All competitions
Last Game: Kyoto Sanga 2-2 Reysol
Wednesday, June 26 at 11am in J1 League

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Kashiwa Reysol win with a probability of 42.86%. A win for Sagan Tosu had a probability of 31.45% and a draw had a probability of 25.7%.

The most likely scoreline for a Kashiwa Reysol win was 0-1 with a probability of 10.02%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.93%) and 0-2 (7.34%). The likeliest Sagan Tosu win was 1-0 (8.33%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.2%). The actual scoreline of 1-4 was predicted with a 1.6% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Kashiwa Reysol would win this match.

Result
Sagan TosuDrawKashiwa Reysol
31.45% (0.265 0.27)25.69% (0.101 0.1)42.86% (-0.365 -0.37)
Both teams to score 54.11% (-0.216 -0.22)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
50.17% (-0.33 -0.33)49.82% (0.332 0.33)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
28.18% (-0.295 -0.29)71.82% (0.298 0.3)
Sagan Tosu Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
70.38% (0.012999999999991 0.01)29.62% (-0.010999999999999 -0.01)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
34.34% (0.016999999999996 0.02)65.66% (-0.013999999999996 -0.01)
Kashiwa Reysol Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
76.87% (-0.319 -0.32)23.12% (0.321 0.32)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
43.01% (-0.47 -0.47)56.98% (0.472 0.47)
Score Analysis
    Sagan Tosu 31.45%
    Kashiwa Reysol 42.85%
    Draw 25.69%
Sagan TosuDrawKashiwa Reysol
1-0 @ 8.33% (0.115 0.12)
2-1 @ 7.42% (0.035 0.04)
2-0 @ 5.07% (0.071000000000001 0.07)
3-1 @ 3.01% (0.016 0.02)
3-2 @ 2.21% (-0.0099999999999998 -0.01)
3-0 @ 2.06% (0.03 0.03)
4-1 @ 0.92% (0.005 0.01)
Other @ 2.43%
Total : 31.45%
1-1 @ 12.2% (0.059999999999999 0.06)
0-0 @ 6.85% (0.092 0.09)
2-2 @ 5.44% (-0.026 -0.03)
3-3 @ 1.08% (-0.015 -0.01)
Other @ 0.13%
Total : 25.69%
0-1 @ 10.02% (0.032999999999999 0.03)
1-2 @ 8.93% (-0.046000000000001 -0.05)
0-2 @ 7.34% (-0.04 -0.04)
1-3 @ 4.36% (-0.064 -0.06)
0-3 @ 3.58% (-0.054 -0.05)
2-3 @ 2.65% (-0.038 -0.04)
1-4 @ 1.6% (-0.038 -0.04)
0-4 @ 1.31% (-0.032 -0.03)
2-4 @ 0.97% (-0.024 -0.02)
Other @ 2.08%
Total : 42.85%

How you voted: Sagan Tosu vs Reysol

Sagan Tosu
38.5%
Draw
38.5%
Kashiwa Reysol
23.1%
26
Head to Head
Apr 28, 2024 7am
Gameweek 10
Reysol
1-1
Sagan Tosu
Shimamura (40')
Diego (28'), Tsuchiya (69')
Ryan (14')
Kim (51'), Naganuma (76')
Nov 25, 2023 5am
Gameweek 33
Reysol
2-2
Sagan Tosu
Savio (34'), Hosoya (38')
Togashi (4'), Naganuma (67')
Kawahara (21'), Tezuka (47')
Apr 15, 2023 7am
Gameweek 8
Sagan Tosu
1-1
Reysol
Naganuma (55')
Savio (75')
Jul 10, 2022 11am
Gameweek 21
Sagan Tosu
0-1
Reysol

Kikuchi (71')
Muto (19')
Kawaguchi (90+6')
Apr 29, 2022 8am
Gameweek 10
Reysol
1-4
Sagan Tosu
Hosoya (55')
Honda (27'), Tashiro (45'), Fukuta (64'), Iino (82')
Koizumi (30'), Fujita (90+2')