Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Yokohama F Marinos win with a probability of 56.8%. A win for Sagan Tosu had a probability of 22.49% and a draw had a probability of 20.7%.
The most likely scoreline for a Yokohama F Marinos win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.6%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (7.51%) and 1-0 (7.07%). The likeliest Sagan Tosu win was 1-2 (5.77%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (9.03%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with a 4.3% likelihood.