J1 League | Gameweek 22
Jul 6, 2024 at 10.30am UK
Denka Big Swan Stadium

Albirex Niigata
3 - 4
Sagan Tosu

Taniguchi (17'), Fitzgerald (61'), Fujiwara (84')
Fitzgerald (34'), Gomes (67')
FT(HT: 1-2)
Yamazaki (13'), Yokoyama (32', 52'), Naganuma (51')
Naganuma (43')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Saturday's J1 League clash between Albirex Niigata and Sagan Tosu, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Albirex Niigata

All competitions
Last Game: Consadole 0-1 Albirex Niigata
Saturday, June 29 at 6am in J1 League

Sagan Tosu

All competitions
Last Game: Yokohama 0-1 Sagan Tosu
Wednesday, July 3 at 11am in J1 League

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Albirex Niigata win with a probability of 49.56%. A win for Sagan Tosu had a probability of 26.86% and a draw had a probability of 23.6%.

The most likely scoreline for an Albirex Niigata win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.57%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (8.98%) and 2-0 (7.82%). The likeliest Sagan Tosu win was 1-2 (6.72%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.98%). The actual scoreline of 3-4 was predicted with a 0.4% likelihood.

Result
Albirex NiigataDrawSagan Tosu
49.56% (0.71 0.71)23.58% (0.053000000000001 0.05)26.86% (-0.757 -0.76)
Both teams to score 58.2% (-0.824 -0.82)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
56.88% (-0.799 -0.8)43.11% (0.805 0.81)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
34.48% (-0.795 -0.8)65.52% (0.80200000000001 0.8)
Albirex Niigata Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
82.48% (-0.031000000000006 -0.03)17.52% (0.038 0.04)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
51.96% (-0.059999999999995 -0.06)48.04% (0.067999999999998 0.07)
Sagan Tosu Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
70.56% (-0.967 -0.97)29.44% (0.975 0.98)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
34.56% (-1.2 -1.2)65.44% (1.208 1.21)
Score Analysis
    Albirex Niigata 49.56%
    Sagan Tosu 26.86%
    Draw 23.57%
Albirex NiigataDrawSagan Tosu
2-1 @ 9.57% (0.058999999999999 0.06)
1-0 @ 8.98% (0.305 0.31)
2-0 @ 7.82% (0.256 0.26)
3-1 @ 5.56% (0.027 0.03)
3-0 @ 4.54% (0.144 0.14)
3-2 @ 3.4% (-0.076 -0.08)
4-1 @ 2.42% (0.0089999999999999 0.01)
4-0 @ 1.98% (0.06 0.06)
4-2 @ 1.48% (-0.035 -0.03)
Other @ 3.82%
Total : 49.56%
1-1 @ 10.98% (0.08 0.08)
2-2 @ 5.85% (-0.124 -0.12)
0-0 @ 5.16% (0.182 0.18)
3-3 @ 1.38% (-0.07 -0.07)
Other @ 0.2%
Total : 23.57%
1-2 @ 6.72% (-0.134 -0.13)
0-1 @ 6.31% (0.054 0.05)
0-2 @ 3.86% (-0.072 -0.07)
1-3 @ 2.74% (-0.131 -0.13)
2-3 @ 2.38% (-0.118 -0.12)
0-3 @ 1.57% (-0.073 -0.07)
Other @ 3.28%
Total : 26.86%

How you voted: Albirex Niigata vs Sagan Tosu

Albirex Niigata
57.1%
Draw
42.9%
Sagan Tosu
0.0%
7
Head to Head
Feb 24, 2024 5am
Gameweek 1
Sagan Tosu
1-2
Albirex Niigata
Fukuta (5')
Harada (90+2')
Taniguchi (45+3'), Arai (54')
Arai (31'), Miyamoto (41')
Oct 21, 2023 5am
Gameweek 30
Albirex Niigata
1-1
Sagan Tosu
Suzuki (45+4' pen.)
Fitzgerald (63')
Ono (45+5')
May 20, 2023 9am
Gameweek 14
Sagan Tosu
2-0
Albirex Niigata
Ono (11'), Kawata (80' pen.)
Fujita (90+1')

Komi (76')