Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Machida Zelvia win with a probability of 42.77%. A win for Albirex Niigata had a probability of 30.72% and a draw had a probability of 26.5%.
The most likely scoreline for a Machida Zelvia win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.04%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.8%) and 2-0 (7.71%). The likeliest Albirex Niigata win was 0-1 (9.03%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.6%). The actual scoreline of 1-3 was predicted with a 2.7% likelihood.