Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Albirex Niigata win with a probability of 39.97%. A win for Avispa Fukuoka had a probability of 33.47% and a draw had a probability of 26.6%.
The most likely scoreline for an Albirex Niigata win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.43%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.52%) and 2-0 (7.04%). The likeliest Avispa Fukuoka win was 0-1 (9.37%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.63%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with a 7.6% likelihood.