Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Gamba Osaka win with a probability of 40.34%. A win for Sagan Tosu had a probability of 32.66% and a draw had a probability of 27%.

The most likely scoreline for a Gamba Osaka win was 0-1 with a probability of 11.02%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.47%) and 0-2 (7.29%). The likeliest Sagan Tosu win was 1-0 (9.68%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.81%). The actual scoreline of 0-2 was predicted with a 7.3% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Gamba Osaka would win this match.

Result
Sagan Tosu	Draw	Gamba Osaka
32.66% ( 0.06)	26.99% ( 0.03)	40.34% ( -0.08)

Both teams to score 50.42% (

-0.05)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

45.24% (

-0.08)

54.77% (

0.08)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

23.92% (

-0.07)

76.08% (

0.06)

Sagan Tosu Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

68.72% (

-0)

31.28%

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

32.36% (

-0)

67.64% (

Gamba Osaka Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

73.37% (

-0.08)

26.63% (

0.08)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

38.13% (

-0.11)

61.87% (

0.1)

Score Analysis

Sagan Tosu 32.66%

Gamba Osaka 40.34%

Draw 26.99%

Sagan Tosu	Draw	Gamba Osaka
1-0 @ 9.68% ( 0.03) 2-1 @ 7.44% ( 0) 2-0 @ 5.63% ( 0.02) 3-1 @ 2.88% ( 0) 3-0 @ 2.18% ( 0.01) 3-2 @ 1.91% ( -0) Other @ 2.94% Total : 32.66%	1-1 @ 12.81% ( 0.01) 0-0 @ 8.33% ( 0.03) 2-2 @ 4.92% ( -0.01) Other @ 0.93% Total : 26.99%	0-1 @ 11.02% ( 0.01) 1-2 @ 8.47% ( -0.01) 0-2 @ 7.29% ( -0.01) 1-3 @ 3.74% ( -0.01) 0-3 @ 3.22% ( -0.01) 2-3 @ 2.17% ( -0.01) 1-4 @ 1.24% ( -0.01) 0-4 @ 1.06% ( -0.01) Other @ 2.13% Total : 40.34%