Gamba Osaka
J1 League | Gameweek 21
Jun 30, 2024 at 10am UK
Nishigaoka National Stadium

Gamba Osaka
1 - 3
Machida Zelvia

Felipe (9')
Handa (31')
FT(HT: 1-1)
Duke (45+2'), Fujio (61' pen.), Sento (69')
Araki (43'), Shimoda (52'), Suzuki (90+7')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Sunday's J1 League clash between Gamba Osaka and Machida Zelvia, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Gamba Osaka

All competitions
Last Game: Kashima Antlers 0-0 Gamba Osaka
Wednesday, June 26 at 11am in J1 League

Machida Zelvia

All competitions
Last Game: Vissel Kobe 0-0 Machida Zelvia
Wednesday, June 26 at 11am in J1 League

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Gamba Osaka win with a probability of 36.3%. A win for Machida Zelvia had a probability of 36.05% and a draw had a probability of 27.6%.

The most likely scoreline for a Gamba Osaka win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.89%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (7.86%) and 2-0 (6.56%). The likeliest Machida Zelvia win was 0-1 (10.85%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.05%). The actual scoreline of 1-3 was predicted with a 3.1% likelihood.

Result
Gamba OsakaDrawMachida Zelvia
36.3% (-0.011000000000003 -0.01)27.65% (0.033999999999999 0.03)36.05% (-0.023000000000003 -0.02)
Both teams to score 48.88% (-0.109 -0.11)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
43.08% (-0.13200000000001 -0.13)56.92% (0.133 0.13)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
22.17% (-0.106 -0.11)77.83% (0.10599999999999 0.11)
Gamba Osaka Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
69.99% (-0.070999999999998 -0.07)30.01% (0.071999999999999 0.07)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
33.87% (-0.088000000000001 -0.09)66.13% (0.087999999999994 0.09)
Machida Zelvia Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
69.83% (-0.082999999999998 -0.08)30.17% (0.083000000000002 0.08)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
33.68% (-0.098000000000006 -0.1)66.32% (0.097999999999999 0.1)
Score Analysis
    Gamba Osaka 36.29%
    Machida Zelvia 36.05%
    Draw 27.64%
Gamba OsakaDrawMachida Zelvia
1-0 @ 10.89% (0.030000000000001 0.03)
2-1 @ 7.86% (-0.010000000000001 -0.01)
2-0 @ 6.56% (0.0070000000000006 0.01)
3-1 @ 3.15% (-0.0099999999999998 -0.01)
3-0 @ 2.63% (-0.0020000000000002 -0)
3-2 @ 1.89% (-0.011 -0.01)
4-1 @ 0.95% (-0.005 -0.01)
Other @ 2.37%
Total : 36.29%
1-1 @ 13.05% (0.010000000000002 0.01)
0-0 @ 9.05% (0.046000000000001 0.05)
2-2 @ 4.71% (-0.016 -0.02)
Other @ 0.83%
Total : 27.64%
0-1 @ 10.85% (0.039999999999999 0.04)
1-2 @ 7.83% (-0.011 -0.01)
0-2 @ 6.5% (0.0039999999999996 0)
1-3 @ 3.13% (-0.012 -0.01)
0-3 @ 2.6% (-0.004 -0)
2-3 @ 1.88% (-0.011 -0.01)
1-4 @ 0.94% (-0.0049999999999999 -0)
Other @ 2.33%
Total : 36.05%

How you voted: Gamba Osaka vs Machida Zelvia

Gamba Osaka
52.0%
Draw
32.0%
Machida Zelvia
16.0%
25
Head to Head
Feb 24, 2024 6am
Gameweek 1
Machida Zelvia
1-1
Gamba Osaka
Suzuki (17' pen.)
Sento (10'), Tani (90+2')
Sento (60')
Usami (84')