Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Columbus Crew win with a probability of 51.58%. A win for Aston Villa had a probability of 25.55% and a draw had a probability of 22.9%.

The most likely scoreline for a Columbus Crew win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.66%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (8.58%) and 2-0 (7.87%). The likeliest Aston Villa win was 1-2 (6.47%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.53%). The actual scoreline of 4-1 was predicted with a 2.7% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Columbus Crew would win this match.

Result
Columbus Crew	Draw	Aston Villa
51.58% ( -0.05)	22.86% ( 0.01)	25.55% ( 0.05)

Both teams to score 59.43% (

0.02)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

59.07% (

0.01)

40.93% (

-0.01)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

36.68% (

0.01)

63.32% (

-0.01)

Columbus Crew Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

84.03% (

-0.01)

15.97% (

0.02)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

54.73% (

-0.03)

45.27% (

0.03)

Aston Villa Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

70.73% (

0.04)

29.27% (

-0.04)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

34.76% (

0.05)

65.24% (

-0.05)

Score Analysis

Columbus Crew 51.58%

Aston Villa 25.55%

Draw 22.86%

Columbus Crew	Draw	Aston Villa
2-1 @ 9.66% ( -0) 1-0 @ 8.58% ( -0.01) 2-0 @ 7.87% ( -0.01) 3-1 @ 5.91% ( -0) 3-0 @ 4.81% ( -0.01) 3-2 @ 3.63% 4-1 @ 2.71% ( -0) 4-0 @ 2.21% ( -0) 4-2 @ 1.66% ( -0) 5-1 @ 0.99% ( -0) Other @ 3.56% Total : 51.58%	1-1 @ 10.53% 2-2 @ 5.94% ( 0) 0-0 @ 4.68% ( -0) 3-3 @ 1.49% ( 0) Other @ 0.23% Total : 22.86%	1-2 @ 6.47% ( 0.01) 0-1 @ 5.74% ( 0) 0-2 @ 3.53% ( 0.01) 1-3 @ 2.65% ( 0.01) 2-3 @ 2.43% ( 0) 0-3 @ 1.45% ( 0) Other @ 3.28% Total : 25.55%