Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Aston Villa win with a probability of 38.29%. A win for Spartak Trnava had a probability of 36.39% and a draw had a probability of 25.3%.

The most likely scoreline for an Aston Villa win was 0-1 with a probability of 8.69%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.46%) and 0-2 (6.15%). The likeliest Spartak Trnava win was 1-0 (8.43%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.94%). The actual scoreline of 0-3 was predicted with a 2.9% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Aston Villa would win this match.

Result
Spartak Trnava	Draw	Aston Villa
36.39% ( 0.04)	25.32% ( 0.01)	38.29% ( -0.05)

Both teams to score 56.59% (

-0.02)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

52.85% (

-0.03)

47.14% (

0.03)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

30.62% (

-0.03)

69.38% (

0.03)

Spartak Trnava Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

74.71% (

0.01)

25.28% (

-0.01)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

39.95% (

0.01)

60.05% (

-0.01)

Aston Villa Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

75.75% (

-0.04)

24.25% (

0.04)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

41.39% (

-0.05)

58.6% (

0.06)

Score Analysis

Spartak Trnava 36.39%

Aston Villa 38.29%

Draw 25.31%

Spartak Trnava	Draw	Aston Villa
1-0 @ 8.43% ( 0.01) 2-1 @ 8.21% ( 0.01) 2-0 @ 5.8% ( 0.01) 3-1 @ 3.76% ( 0) 3-2 @ 2.67% ( -0) 3-0 @ 2.66% ( 0.01) 4-1 @ 1.29% ( 0) 4-2 @ 0.92% ( -0) 4-0 @ 0.91% ( 0) Other @ 1.75% Total : 36.39%	1-1 @ 11.94% ( 0.01) 0-0 @ 6.13% ( 0.01) 2-2 @ 5.82% ( -0) 3-3 @ 1.26% ( -0) Other @ 0.17% Total : 25.31%	0-1 @ 8.69% ( 0) 1-2 @ 8.46% ( -0.01) 0-2 @ 6.15% ( -0) 1-3 @ 4% ( -0.01) 0-3 @ 2.91% ( -0.01) 2-3 @ 2.75% ( -0) 1-4 @ 1.42% ( -0) 0-4 @ 1.03% ( -0) 2-4 @ 0.97% ( -0) Other @ 1.92% Total : 38.29%