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FA Cup

FA Cup | Second Round Qualifying
Sep 14, 2024 at 3pm UK
Butlin Road

Rugby Town
2 - 2
Hednesford

Charles (76')
FT(HT: 0-0)
Duku (67')
Coverage of the FA Cup Second Round Qualifying clash between Rugby Town and Hednesford Town.

Form, Standings, Stats

Rugby Town

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Last Game: Barton Town Old Boys 0-1 Rugby Town
Saturday, August 31 at 3pm in FA Cup
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Hednesford Town

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Last Game: Melton Town 1-6 Hednesford
Saturday, August 31 at 3pm in FA Cup
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Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Hednesford Town win with a probability of 48.56%. A win for Rugby Town had a probability of 28.8% and a draw had a probability of 22.6%.

The most likely scoreline for a Hednesford Town win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.33%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (7.28%) and 0-2 (6.75%). The likeliest Rugby Town win was 2-1 (6.97%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.07%). The actual scoreline of 2-2 was predicted with a 6.5% likelihood.

Result
Rugby TownDrawHednesford Town
28.8% (0.052 0.05)22.63% (-0.0019999999999989 -0)48.56% (-0.055 -0.05)
Both teams to score 63.17% (0.036999999999999 0.04)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
62.75% (0.030999999999999 0.03)37.25% (-0.032999999999994 -0.03)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
40.54% (0.034999999999997 0.03)59.46% (-0.036999999999999 -0.04)
Rugby Town Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
74.93% (0.048999999999992 0.05)25.07% (-0.052 -0.05)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
40.25% (0.067999999999998 0.07)59.75% (-0.071000000000005 -0.07)
Hednesford Town Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
84.31% (-0.0090000000000003 -0.01)15.69% (0.0060000000000002 0.01)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
55.25% (-0.012 -0.01)44.75% (0.0090000000000003 0.01)
Score Analysis
    Rugby Town 28.8%
    Hednesford Town 48.56%
    Draw 22.63%
Rugby TownDrawHednesford Town
2-1 @ 6.97% (0.0069999999999997 0.01)
1-0 @ 5.44% (-0.00099999999999945 -0)
2-0 @ 3.77% (0.0050000000000003 0.01)
3-1 @ 3.22% (0.008 0.01)
3-2 @ 2.98% (0.0070000000000001 0.01)
3-0 @ 1.74% (0.004 0)
4-1 @ 1.11% (0.0049999999999999 0)
4-2 @ 1.03% (0.004 0)
Other @ 2.55%
Total : 28.8%
1-1 @ 10.07% (-0.0099999999999998 -0.01)
2-2 @ 6.46% (0.0049999999999999 0)
0-0 @ 3.93% (-0.0070000000000001 -0.01)
3-3 @ 1.84% (0.004 0)
Other @ 0.33%
Total : 22.63%
1-2 @ 9.33% (-0.0050000000000008 -0.01)
0-1 @ 7.28% (-0.014 -0.01)
0-2 @ 6.75% (-0.013 -0.01)
1-3 @ 5.76% (-0.0050000000000008 -0.01)
0-3 @ 4.17% (-0.0090000000000003 -0.01)
2-3 @ 3.99% (0.0030000000000001 0)
1-4 @ 2.67% (-0.0029999999999997 -0)
0-4 @ 1.93% (-0.0050000000000001 -0.01)
2-4 @ 1.85% (0.0010000000000001 0)
1-5 @ 0.99% (-0.001 -0)
Other @ 3.85%
Total : 48.56%