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Europa League

Qarabag
Europa League | League Stage
Nov 28, 2024 at 5.45pm UK
Tofiq Bahramov adina Respublika stadionu (Baki (Baku))
Lyon

Qarabag
1 - 4
Lyon

Juninho (88' pen.)
FT(HT: 0-1)
Mikautadze (15', 80'), Tolisso (63'), Fofana (68')
Maitland-Niles (57'), Tagliafico (90+3')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Thursday's Europa League clash between Qarabag FK and Lyon, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Qarabag FK

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Last Game: Bodo/Glimt 1-2 Qarabag
Thursday, November 7 at 5.45pm in Europa League
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Lyon

All competitions
Europa League
Last Game: Reims 1-1 Lyon
Saturday, November 23 at 8pm in Ligue 1

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Lyon win with a probability of 38.23%. A win for Qarabag FK had a probability of 37.58% and a draw had a probability of 24.2%.

The most likely scoreline for a Lyon win was 1-2 with a probability of 8.44%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (7.38%) and 0-2 (5.61%). The likeliest Qarabag FK win was 2-1 (8.36%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.1%). The actual scoreline of 1-4 was predicted with a 1.6% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Lyon would win this match.

Result
Qarabag FKDrawLyon
37.58% (1.745 1.75)24.18% (-0.083000000000002 -0.08)38.23% (-1.663 -1.66)
Both teams to score 60.79% (0.461 0.46)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
58.25% (0.53599999999999 0.54)41.75% (-0.537 -0.54)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
35.84% (0.54 0.54)64.15% (-0.541 -0.54)
Qarabag FK Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
77.8% (1.155 1.16)22.2% (-1.157 -1.16)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
44.39% (1.711 1.71)55.61% (-1.712 -1.71)
Lyon Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
78.13% (-0.57599999999999 -0.58)21.87% (0.577 0.58)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
44.89% (-0.88200000000001 -0.88)55.11% (0.88 0.88)
Score Analysis
    Qarabag FK 37.58%
    Lyon 38.23%
    Draw 24.18%
Qarabag FKDrawLyon
2-1 @ 8.36% (0.223 0.22)
1-0 @ 7.31% (0.074 0.07)
2-0 @ 5.5% (0.239 0.24)
3-1 @ 4.19% (0.249 0.25)
3-2 @ 3.19% (0.137 0.14)
3-0 @ 2.76% (0.209 0.21)
4-1 @ 1.58% (0.144 0.14)
4-2 @ 1.2% (0.091 0.09)
4-0 @ 1.04% (0.111 0.11)
Other @ 2.46%
Total : 37.58%
1-1 @ 11.1% (-0.08 -0.08)
2-2 @ 6.35% (0.062 0.06)
0-0 @ 4.85% (-0.118 -0.12)
3-3 @ 1.62% (0.042 0.04)
Other @ 0.25%
Total : 24.18%
1-2 @ 8.44% (-0.21 -0.21)
0-1 @ 7.38% (-0.313 -0.31)
0-2 @ 5.61% (-0.34 -0.34)
1-3 @ 4.28% (-0.183 -0.18)
2-3 @ 3.22% (-0.024 -0.02)
0-3 @ 2.84% (-0.225 -0.23)
1-4 @ 1.63% (-0.099 -0.1)
2-4 @ 1.22% (-0.031 -0.03)
0-4 @ 1.08% (-0.106 -0.11)
Other @ 2.54%
Total : 38.23%

How you voted: Qarabag vs Lyon

Qarabag FK
18.2%
Draw
16.2%
Lyon
65.5%
148