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Conference League | Third Qualifying Round | 1st Leg
Aug 8, 2024 at 7pm UK
Rugby Park

Kilmarnock
2 - 2
Tromso

Vassell (6'), Wales (90+3')
Wright (43')
FT(HT: 1-0)
Napoleon Romsaas (50'), Nordas (64')
Paintsil (68')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Thursday's Europa Conference League clash between Kilmarnock and Tromso IL, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Last Game: Celtic 4-0 Kilmarnock
Sunday, August 4 at 4.30pm in Scottish Premiership
Last Game: Rosenborg 1-0 Tromso
Sunday, August 4 at 6.15pm in Norwegian Eliteserien

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Tromso IL win with a probability of 39.97%. A win for Kilmarnock had a probability of 33.94% and a draw had a probability of 26.1%.

The most likely scoreline for a Tromso IL win was 0-1 with a probability of 9.87%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.59%) and 0-2 (6.84%). The likeliest Kilmarnock win was 1-0 (8.95%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.39%). The actual scoreline of 2-2 was predicted with a 5.4% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted a draw in this match.

Result
KilmarnockDrawTromso IL
33.94% (-0.012 -0.01)26.08% (-0.010000000000002 -0.01)39.97% (0.018999999999998 0.02)
Both teams to score 53.62% (0.027000000000001 0.03)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
49.19% (0.036000000000001 0.04)50.8% (-0.039000000000001 -0.04)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
27.3% (0.032999999999998 0.03)72.69% (-0.036000000000001 -0.04)
Kilmarnock Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
71.52% (0.010999999999996 0.01)28.48% (-0.015000000000001 -0.02)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
35.75% (0.013999999999996 0.01)64.25% (-0.018000000000001 -0.02)
Tromso IL Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
74.98% (0.025999999999996 0.03)25.02% (-0.029 -0.03)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
40.32% (0.038000000000004 0.04)59.68% (-0.040999999999997 -0.04)
Score Analysis
    Kilmarnock 33.94%
    Tromso IL 39.97%
    Draw 26.07%
KilmarnockDrawTromso IL
1-0 @ 8.95% (-0.010999999999999 -0.01)
2-1 @ 7.79% (-0.0010000000000003 -0)
2-0 @ 5.62% (-0.0049999999999999 -0)
3-1 @ 3.26% (0.00099999999999989 0)
3-0 @ 2.35% (-0.0020000000000002 -0)
3-2 @ 2.26% (0.0020000000000002 0)
4-1 @ 1.02%
Other @ 2.7%
Total : 33.94%
1-1 @ 12.39% (-0.0099999999999998 -0.01)
0-0 @ 7.12% (-0.012 -0.01)
2-2 @ 5.4% (0.0049999999999999 0)
3-3 @ 1.04% (0.002 0)
Other @ 0.12%
Total : 26.07%
0-1 @ 9.87% (-0.0070000000000014 -0.01)
1-2 @ 8.59% (0.0039999999999996 0)
0-2 @ 6.84%
1-3 @ 3.97% (0.0049999999999999 0)
0-3 @ 3.16% (0.0030000000000001 0)
2-3 @ 2.49% (0.004 0)
1-4 @ 1.38% (0.0029999999999999 0)
0-4 @ 1.1% (0.002 0)
Other @ 2.58%
Total : 39.97%

How you voted: Kilmarnock vs Tromso

Kilmarnock
51.4%
Draw
31.4%
Tromso IL
17.1%
70