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Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a AZ Alkmaar win with a probability of 39.08%. A win for PEC Zwolle had a probability of 35.45% and a draw had a probability of 25.5%.
The most likely scoreline for an AZ Alkmaar win was 0-1 with a probability of 9%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.55%) and 0-2 (6.38%). The likeliest PEC Zwolle win was 1-0 (8.49%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.04%). The actual scoreline of 0-3 was predicted with a 3% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that AZ Alkmaar would win this match.
Result | ||
PEC Zwolle | Draw | AZ Alkmaar |
35.45% ( -0.23) | 25.48% ( -0.04) | 39.08% ( 0.27) |
Both teams to score 55.94% ( 0.1) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
52.05% ( 0.15) | 47.95% ( -0.15) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
29.88% ( 0.14) | 70.12% ( -0.14) |
PEC Zwolle Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
73.8% ( -0.06) | 26.2% ( 0.06) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
38.71% ( -0.08) | 61.3% ( 0.08) |
AZ Alkmaar Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
75.8% ( 0.2) | 24.2% ( -0.21) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
41.47% ( 0.29) | 58.54% ( -0.29) |
Score Analysis |
PEC Zwolle | Draw | AZ Alkmaar |
1-0 @ 8.49% ( -0.07) 2-1 @ 8.07% ( -0.03) 2-0 @ 5.69% ( -0.06) 3-1 @ 3.6% ( -0.02) 3-2 @ 2.56% ( 0) 3-0 @ 2.54% ( -0.03) 4-1 @ 1.21% ( -0.01) Other @ 3.29% Total : 35.45% | 1-1 @ 12.04% ( -0.03) 0-0 @ 6.34% ( -0.04) 2-2 @ 5.72% ( 0.01) 3-3 @ 1.21% ( 0.01) Other @ 0.16% Total : 25.47% | 0-1 @ 9% ( -0) 1-2 @ 8.55% ( 0.04) 0-2 @ 6.38% ( 0.04) 1-3 @ 4.04% ( 0.04) 0-3 @ 3.02% ( 0.03) 2-3 @ 2.71% ( 0.02) 1-4 @ 1.43% ( 0.02) 0-4 @ 1.07% ( 0.02) 2-4 @ 0.96% ( 0.01) Other @ 1.92% Total : 39.08% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
1 | PSV EindhovenPSV | 32 | 28 | 3 | 1 | 107 | 19 | 88 | 87 |
2 | Feyenoord | 32 | 24 | 6 | 2 | 85 | 24 | 61 | 78 |
3 | FC Twente | 32 | 19 | 6 | 7 | 60 | 33 | 27 | 63 |
4 | AZ AlkmaarAZ | 32 | 18 | 7 | 7 | 64 | 36 | 28 | 61 |
5 | Ajax | 32 | 14 | 10 | 8 | 69 | 59 | 10 | 52 |
6 | FC UtrechtUtrecht | 32 | 13 | 10 | 9 | 46 | 43 | 3 | 49 |
7 | NECNijmegen | 31 | 12 | 11 | 8 | 59 | 47 | 12 | 47 |
8 | Go Ahead Eagles | 32 | 11 | 10 | 11 | 45 | 42 | 3 | 43 |
9 | Sparta RotterdamSparta | 32 | 12 | 7 | 13 | 48 | 47 | 1 | 43 |
10 | Heerenveen | 32 | 10 | 7 | 15 | 51 | 65 | -14 | 37 |
11 | Fortuna SittardSittard | 32 | 9 | 9 | 14 | 36 | 55 | -19 | 36 |
12 | PEC Zwolle | 32 | 9 | 8 | 15 | 43 | 64 | -21 | 35 |
13 | Almere CityAlmere City | 32 | 7 | 13 | 12 | 32 | 52 | -20 | 34 |
14 | Heracles | 32 | 9 | 5 | 18 | 41 | 70 | -29 | 32 |
15 | RKC WaalwijkRKC Waalwijk | 32 | 7 | 7 | 18 | 36 | 52 | -16 | 28 |
16 | SBV ExcelsiorExcelsior | 31 | 5 | 11 | 15 | 46 | 66 | -20 | 26 |
17 | FC VolendamVolendam | 32 | 4 | 7 | 21 | 31 | 79 | -48 | 19 |
R | Vitesse | 32 | 5 | 5 | 22 | 25 | 71 | -46 | 2 |
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