Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a AZ Alkmaar win with a probability of 40.92%. A win for Zrinjski Mostar had a probability of 34.43% and a draw had a probability of 24.6%.
The most likely scoreline for an AZ Alkmaar win was 1-2 with a probability of 8.79%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (8.31%) and 0-2 (6.35%). The likeliest Zrinjski Mostar win was 2-1 (7.95%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.49%). The actual scoreline of 4-3 was predicted with a 0.5% likelihood.