Eredivisie | Gameweek 4

Sep 3, 2023 at 3.45pm UK

GelreDome

Vitesse
0 - 2
AZ

Kozlowski (33'), Isimat-Mirin (36'), Arcus (53')

FT(HT: 0-0)

Pavlidis (49', 64')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Sunday's Eredivisie clash between Vitesse and AZ Alkmaar, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Vitesse

All competitions

Last Game: Vitesse 1-3 PSV
Saturday, August 19 at 5.45pm in Eredivisie

Goals
for

Top scorers

AZ Alkmaar

All competitions

Eredivisie

Last Game: Brann 3-3 AZ (5-6 pen.)
Thursday, August 31 at 6pm in Europa Conference League

Goals
for

Top scorers

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a AZ Alkmaar win with a probability of 43.68%. A win for Vitesse had a probability of 30.6% and a draw had a probability of 25.7%.

The most likely scoreline for an AZ Alkmaar win was 0-1 with a probability of 10.28%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (9%) and 0-2 (7.57%). The likeliest Vitesse win was 1-0 (8.31%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.22%). The actual scoreline of 0-2 was predicted with a 7.6% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that AZ Alkmaar would win this match.

Result
Vitesse	Draw	AZ Alkmaar
30.6% ( 0.73)	25.73% ( 0.03)	43.68% ( -0.76)

Both teams to score 53.6% (

0.28)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

49.69% (

0.19)

50.31% (

-0.19)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

27.74% (

0.17)

72.26% (

-0.17)

Vitesse Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

69.56% (

0.61)

30.45% (

-0.61)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

33.35% (

0.72)

66.65% (

-0.72)

AZ Alkmaar Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

77.06% (

-0.28)

22.94% (

0.28)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

43.28% (

-0.41)

56.72% (

0.41)

Score Analysis

Vitesse 30.6%

AZ Alkmaar 43.67%

Draw 25.72%

Vitesse	Draw	AZ Alkmaar
1-0 @ 8.31% ( 0.08) 2-1 @ 7.27% ( 0.13) 2-0 @ 4.94% ( 0.13) 3-1 @ 2.88% ( 0.1) 3-2 @ 2.12% ( 0.05) 3-0 @ 1.96% ( 0.08) Other @ 3.12% Total : 30.6%	1-1 @ 12.22% ( 0.01) 0-0 @ 6.99% ( -0.05) 2-2 @ 5.35% ( 0.05) 3-3 @ 1.04% ( 0.02) Other @ 0.12% Total : 25.72%	0-1 @ 10.28% ( -0.16) 1-2 @ 9% ( -0.07) 0-2 @ 7.57% ( -0.19) 1-3 @ 4.42% ( -0.07) 0-3 @ 3.71% ( -0.12) 2-3 @ 2.63% ( 0) 1-4 @ 1.63% ( -0.04) 0-4 @ 1.37% ( -0.06) 2-4 @ 0.97% ( -0.01) Other @ 2.1% Total : 43.67%