Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a AZ Alkmaar win with a probability of 76.79%. A draw had a probability of 14.3% and a win for FC Santa Coloma had a probability of 8.9%.
The most likely scoreline for an AZ Alkmaar win was 2-0 with a probability of 10.91%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 3-0 (9.74%) and 2-1 (8.89%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (6.64%), while for a FC Santa Coloma win it was 1-2 (2.7%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 10.9% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 2-0 win for AZ Alkmaar in this match.