Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a AZ Alkmaar win with a probability of 66.29%. A draw had a probability of 20.2% and a win for FC Santa Coloma had a probability of 13.49%.

The most likely scoreline for an AZ Alkmaar win was 0-2 with a probability of 12.43%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (12.35%) and 1-2 (9.67%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.6%), while for a FC Santa Coloma win it was 1-0 (4.77%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with a 12.4% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that AZ Alkmaar would win this match.

Result
FC Santa Coloma	Draw	AZ Alkmaar
13.49% ( 0.12)	20.22% ( 0.13)	66.29% ( -0.24)

Both teams to score 46.83% (

-0.08)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

52.85% (

-0.28)

47.15% (

0.28)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

30.61% (

-0.26)

69.38% (

0.26)

FC Santa Coloma Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

54.04% (

0.01)

45.95% (

-0.01)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

18.31% (

0.01)

81.69% (

-0.01)

AZ Alkmaar Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

86.65% (

-0.16)

13.35% (

0.15)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

59.77% (

-0.32)

40.23% (

0.32)

Score Analysis

FC Santa Coloma 13.49%

AZ Alkmaar 66.28%

Draw 20.22%

FC Santa Coloma	Draw	AZ Alkmaar
1-0 @ 4.77% ( 0.06) 2-1 @ 3.73% ( 0.02) 2-0 @ 1.85% ( 0.02) 3-2 @ 0.97% 3-1 @ 0.97% ( 0.01) Other @ 1.2% Total : 13.49%	1-1 @ 9.6% ( 0.06) 0-0 @ 6.13% ( 0.07) 2-2 @ 3.76% ( 0) Other @ 0.72% Total : 20.22%	0-2 @ 12.43% 0-1 @ 12.35% ( 0.07) 1-2 @ 9.67% ( 0) 0-3 @ 8.35% ( -0.05) 1-3 @ 6.49% ( -0.04) 0-4 @ 4.2% ( -0.05) 1-4 @ 3.27% ( -0.04) 2-3 @ 2.52% ( -0.01) 0-5 @ 1.69% ( -0.03) 1-5 @ 1.32% ( -0.02) 2-4 @ 1.27% ( -0.01) Other @ 2.71% Total : 66.28%