Eredivisie | Gameweek 5

Sep 17, 2023 at 3.45pm UK

AFAS Stadion

AZ
2 - 0
Sparta

de Wit (18'), Pavlidis (19')

FT(HT: 2-0)

Verschueren (38'), Bakari (43'), van der Kust (81')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Sunday's Eredivisie clash between AZ Alkmaar and Sparta Rotterdam, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

AZ Alkmaar

All competitions

Eredivisie

Last Game: Vitesse 0-2 AZ
Sunday, September 3 at 3.45pm in Eredivisie

Goals
for

Top scorers

Sparta Rotterdam

All competitions

Last Game: Sparta 1-1 Nijmegen
Friday, September 1 at 7pm in Eredivisie

Goals
for

Top scorers

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a AZ Alkmaar win with a probability of 60.44%. A draw had a probability of 21.4% and a win for Sparta Rotterdam had a probability of 18.12%.

The most likely scoreline for an AZ Alkmaar win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.42%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.23%) and 2-1 (9.95%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.13%), while for a Sparta Rotterdam win it was 0-1 (5.16%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 10.2% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that AZ Alkmaar would win this match.

Result
AZ Alkmaar	Draw	Sparta Rotterdam
60.44% ( -0.84)	21.44% ( 0.01)	18.12% ( 0.84)

Both teams to score 53.46% (

1.61)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

56.23% (

1.33)

43.77% (

-1.33)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

33.84% (

1.29)

66.16% (

-1.28)

AZ Alkmaar Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

85.96% (

0.17)

14.04% (

-0.17)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

58.39% (

0.33)

41.61% (

-0.33)

Sparta Rotterdam Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

62.19% (

1.76)

37.81% (

-1.75)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

25.42% (

1.67)

74.58% (

-1.67)

Score Analysis

AZ Alkmaar 60.44%

Sparta Rotterdam 18.12%

Draw 21.44%

AZ Alkmaar	Draw	Sparta Rotterdam
1-0 @ 10.42% ( -0.54) 2-0 @ 10.23% ( -0.47) 2-1 @ 9.95% ( 0.03) 3-0 @ 6.69% ( -0.27) 3-1 @ 6.51% ( 0.06) 4-0 @ 3.29% ( -0.11) 4-1 @ 3.2% ( 0.05) 3-2 @ 3.17% ( 0.17) 4-2 @ 1.55% ( 0.09) 5-0 @ 1.29% ( -0.03) 5-1 @ 1.26% ( 0.03) Other @ 2.88% Total : 60.44%	1-1 @ 10.13% ( -0.04) 0-0 @ 5.31% ( -0.31) 2-2 @ 4.84% ( 0.24) 3-3 @ 1.03% ( 0.1) Other @ 0.13% Total : 21.44%	0-1 @ 5.16% ( -0.05) 1-2 @ 4.93% ( 0.21) 0-2 @ 2.51% ( 0.09) 1-3 @ 1.6% ( 0.14) 2-3 @ 1.57% ( 0.15) Other @ 2.35% Total : 18.12%