Corinthians
Copa Libertadores | Group Stage
May 3, 2023 at 1am UK
Neo Química Arena (São Paulo, São Paulo)
Independiente del Valle

Corinthians
1 - 2
Independiente

Guedes (35')
FT(HT: 1-1)
Diaz (22', 52')
Coverage of the Copa Libertadores Group Stage clash between Corinthians and Independiente del Valle.

Form, Standings, Stats

Corinthians

All competitions
Copa Libertadores
Last Game: Palmeiras 2-1 Corinthians
Saturday, April 29 at 10.30pm in Brasileiro

Independiente del Valle

All competitions
Copa Libertadores
Last Game: Independiente 2-0 Liverpool
Wednesday, April 19 at 3am in Copa Libertadores

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Corinthians win with a probability of 58.68%. A draw had a probability of 23.5% and a win for Independiente del Valle had a probability of 17.85%.

The most likely scoreline for a Corinthians win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.26%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (11.49%) and 2-1 (9.62%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.09%), while for a Independiente del Valle win it was 0-1 (6.4%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with a 4.6% likelihood.

Result
CorinthiansDrawIndependiente del Valle
58.68% (1.4 1.4)23.48% (-0.275 -0.28)17.85% (-1.124 -1.12)
Both teams to score 46.68% (-1.112 -1.11)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
47.42% (-0.468 -0.47)52.58% (0.467 0.47)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
25.77% (-0.402 -0.4)74.23% (0.40299999999999 0.4)
Corinthians Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
82.34% (0.339 0.34)17.66% (-0.338 -0.34)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
51.73% (0.582 0.58)48.27% (-0.581 -0.58)
Independiente del Valle Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
56.69% (-1.591 -1.59)43.31% (1.591 1.59)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
20.44% (-1.363 -1.36)79.55% (1.363 1.36)
Score Analysis
    Corinthians 58.67%
    Independiente del Valle 17.85%
    Draw 23.47%
CorinthiansDrawIndependiente del Valle
1-0 @ 13.26% (0.39 0.39)
2-0 @ 11.49% (0.45 0.45)
2-1 @ 9.62% (-0.032 -0.03)
3-0 @ 6.65% (0.333 0.33)
3-1 @ 5.56% (0.042 0.04)
4-0 @ 2.88% (0.174 0.17)
4-1 @ 2.41% (0.045 0.04)
3-2 @ 2.33% (-0.085 -0.09)
4-2 @ 1.01% (-0.025 -0.03)
5-0 @ 1% (0.07 0.07)
Other @ 2.46%
Total : 58.67%
1-1 @ 11.09% (-0.16 -0.16)
0-0 @ 7.65% (0.14 0.14)
2-2 @ 4.03% (-0.194 -0.19)
Other @ 0.71%
Total : 23.47%
0-1 @ 6.4% (-0.163 -0.16)
1-2 @ 4.64% (-0.277 -0.28)
0-2 @ 2.68% (-0.191 -0.19)
1-3 @ 1.3% (-0.138 -0.14)
2-3 @ 1.12% (-0.106 -0.11)
Other @ 1.71%
Total : 17.85%

Head to Head
Sep 26, 2019 1.30am
Semi-Finals
Independiente
2-2
Corinthians
Sanchez (68'), Cabeza (91')
Franco (71'), Mera (75')
Boselli (29'), Clayson (87' pen.)
Sornoza (18'), Clayson (96')
Sep 19, 2019 1.30am
Semi-Finals
Corinthians
0-2
Independiente

Gabriel (31'), Fagner (41')
Torres (44', 69')
Dajome (40'), Landazuri (71')